I’m looking for some COTH advice again. Will likely be breeding my mare in the near future. I will be looking to breed to sell and have been given a few good suggestions and contacted the farms in question. So , options are Midnight Storm, Fed Biz, Constitution, Not This Time. All are A++ matches with my mare. I need to add some size and bone. Would prefer to sell in foal in November, but could hold on to the mare and foal her out. Any COTH wisdom appreciated, as I am new to the breeding side of the business. Of course, have sought out advice of the stud farm breeding managers, but I always get good advice on this forum too!
Thanks in advance.
Knowing nothing about the situation other than the 4 sires posted and that your goal is to sell in foal:
I think you’d be setting yourself up for a loss selling in foal with any of the latter three stallions unless there’s something exciting going on with the mare’s family.
With that said, generally I find the market does the opposite of whatever I think it’s going to do. :lol:
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Since we know nothing about your mare, I will only comment on the rest of your post. If you are breeding to sell your mare or to sell the prospective foal, timing is everything when choosing a stallion.
First crop sires are very popular. Second crop are pretty popular–especially if the first foals look good. By the time the offspring of a third (or fourth) crop sire are offered for sale, the stallion has horses racing so his chances of succeeding are already known. Since fewer than 10% of new stallions make it as sires, breeding third and fourth year is quite risky (from a sales perspective.) Just something to consider when making your choice.
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This is a good article by Bill Oppenheim on the subject you are wanting to do. Bill has been one of the most respected statisticians in the breeding industry since the 80s. He was also a partner of mine with some broodmares. So he has put his money where his mouth is. He had a column in The Thoroughbred Daily News pretty much since it’s inception when it was faxed to subscribers each morning. He jumped ship to the Blood Horse last year.
WINTER MIXED SALES AND EFFECTS OF POLARIZATION
http://cdn.bloodhorse.com/daily-app/pdfs/BloodHorseDaily-20180219.pdf
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Thank you for the feedback.
So, excluding thoughts on the cross, I guess I will just ask for opinions on the stallions for marketability.
Midnight Storm , Cupid or Fed Biz. The first 2 seem like solid new stallions at a good price. The upside of Fed Biz is that my mare has a 2 year old 1/2 sister that rumor has it is a nice filly and will be selling at the 2 year olds in training sale upcoming( sold for 175 in Sept as a yearling). So , gambling a bit that she might do something
Is your mare bred for Turf? I am assuming that’s why you are liking Fed Biz since he is a Giants Causeway son. Its honestly very difficult to offer opinions on stallions when nothing is known about the mare. Is she turf or dirt? sire? dam sire? Anything???
I like FedBiz. he’s handsome, balanced and a strong made horse. Not This Time stands at Taylor made for a tad more and I think he would be the better choice for a Giants Causeway son with the balance, height and strength. I also like Brodys Cause at Spendthrift. My type of balance and substance. His first foals arrive in 2018
Midnight Storm- He’s one of a few Pioneer of the Niles out there. He’s handsome, reminds me a lot of his sire in photo. I am not sold on the fact that he will give you more size, width, and stature and substance. He looks like the narrow type.
Cupid might be an interesting choice given that hes a juvenile stallion, his early foals will be in demand as youngsters. He had a pretty decent race record and he is definitely an affordable option for a Tapit son but Tapits are by the handfuls now so hard to say how in demand they will be at the sales.
Have you considered Bird Song at all? I mean honestly, he is extremely well bred, graded stakes winner, from a graded stakes producing family. He is extremely affordable at $5000 and I expect him to be one of the best young sires out there.
It’s so hard to give an opinion without knowing more about your mare and your goals - aside from the questions above - where do you plan to sell? Kentucky? Somewhere else? Are you planning to get state bred status somewhere other than Kentucky, like NY? Do you have a sales consigner that you work with generally who you may be able to ask for some advice?
I just got my first broodmare prospect out of a winter mixed sale this year, and we just booked her to a stallion. I have the assistance of someone very knowledgeable to help me, who is not compensated by a particular stud farm. I would recommend enlisting someone like this to act as your agent - they can assist you with finding a suitable stallion, and can also sometimes negotiate a better fee for you with the stud farm. My mare was a decent, workmanlike race horse in her own right, bred for the turf and did her best work sprinting there. She ran until she was seven and retired sound and virtually unblemished after 50 starts, so durable as well. She also has a 3 year old full brother who is in training with a BNT and has won his last two on the turf down at GP. So, when deciding who to take her to, we decided to play to her strengths and went with what we think is a very nice stallion with a heavy turf influence who himself was a Gr1 winner on turf and G1 placed on dirt, and whose first crop to race did very well in Europe and the U.S. last year.
Of the stallions you mentioned, I think I like Fed Biz the best. I personally think that he seems to stamp his babies, and the ones I have seen at the sales in Kentucky last year and this winter have looked fantastic. His first crop are two year olds this year, so that could cut either way. If they don’t show much, then commercial value and fee may drop. But, if they are fantastic, then you could very well benefit from enhanced commercial appeal.
Another one that I was interested in that you may want to consider, if his pedigree works with your mare’s, is Kantharos. His fee has gone up for this year, but he still seems like a real value to me considering that he is getting real results at the track.
Wishing you success!
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nelson, congrats on your new mare! Who are you breeding her to?
Thank you LaurieB! We are breeding her to Declaration of War. I’m so excited, I can hardly stand it.
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Nice choice. Best of luck! I hope the next 11 months passes quickly for you. 
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And nelson, next year it didn’t happen without photos of the new arrival
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ooohhh that is a super exciting choice! Best wishes!
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Thank you guys! She is actually going over there today for her first “date”. I can’t sit still, I’m so excited and nervous. I’ll definitely post pics, starting with confirmed in foal, if we are lucky enough to get there!
Fingers crossed for you! We bred two mares this week so we’re counting days as well.
From a “vicarious” breeder
I love reading these and seeing the updates. I know no guarantees but hoping for all that things go as hoped 
As always, thank you to everyone for the advice.
Just giving a fun update. My mare was bred to Tiznow this afternoon.
Fingers crossed that she takes.
Her breeding is Awesome Again out of an AP Indy mare
She has a stakes winning 1/2 brother by Tiznow, so hoping that will be a good cross.
He definitely will add the size and bone that I’m looking for.
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Thanks for the update and good luck!
^^^ This. Especially breeding for turf. hoo–eee. The serious turf buyers want pedigrees as they are looking for both performance and sometimes post race breeding potential, or resale for breeding purposes. The notserious buyers have notserious money, and may not want to roll the dice on a mediocre bred turf horse, unless it has outstanding conformation.
Having said that, there is a horse shortage, which works in favor of sellers. The high end is humming. The low end is awful. The middle is mostly bad as well. From the article gumtree posted, which you should read:
"But here’s what the numbers don’t obviously broadcast. BloodHorse calculated the median price for all foals of 2017 (short yearlings) at all 2018 sales, which were the five previously mentioned, plus Barretts January and the OBS January mixed sale. A total of 1,430 short yearlings went through the rings at these seven sales.
[SIZE=3]Of those, 1,004 sold for a total of $25,439,180 and an average of $25,337 (including the $1 million American Pharoah colt). But barely 25% of them sold for more than the $25,337 average, and the median, for the 1,004 short yearlings sold, was $9,138. That’s 502 yearlings sold for less than $9,138. Ten times as many short yearlings sold for less than $9,138, as all horses—yearlings, fillies, and mares—that brought 200,000 (of their respective currency) or more. "
So 75% sold for $25,337 OR LESS and 25% sold for $25,337 or more. There are lots more statistics, but it’s kind of the same thing.
Buyers are excited about the top 25% of the crop. Not so much the rest of the bunch.[/SIZE]
SO OP, can you support your mare for a year, support the mare and foal until the sale, and pay the stud fee for $25,337? If so, you have a 25% chance of breaking even or making a profit. If not, you have a 75% chance of losing money.
Thanks Palm Beach. I know the breeding market can be a gamble. I did a mare share and will sell at the November sale and take my chances. Mostly just having fun, though. She has an active family right now and I am hoping that her sisters can get some nice wins. Or I can just buy her back out of the sale and keep the foal to race. Then I can really lose some big money.
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Holy cow, what an upgrade over your original choices! Best of luck to you both!
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