Not an expert, just a sort of compulsive reader trying to figure out What Is Going On.
That guy is a profoundly disruptive influence in the region. He keeps it unstable, always a threat to interfere horribly with neighboring regimes with or against other unprincipalled strong men leaders – somewhat like himself. And definitely a dangerous source of terrorism, both training and operatives. It’s what they do, really.
Without him ISIS probably could not have created and maintained its reign of terror over Syria. Chechen soldiers and military leaders were key to their domination.
Chechnya and several states in that region are historically Muslim. Kadyrov styles himself as a devout Muslim, a heritage of generations. He used that as the connection to ISIS. In a part of the world where race matters to the locals, Chechens are not the same racial ethnicity as Arab-nation Muslims. They are more caucausian, and not Arab. So I think that’s why westerners have trouble classifying where they fit in the geo-political scheme.
Russia has been on incursions into several border countries that used to be part of the old Soviet Union to “get rid of Nazis or other troublemaking leaders” and add them to the Russian Federation. Reconstituting the old Soviet Union geography, as it were.
Kadyrov started his military adulthood fighting against the Russians. But he switched sides to join with Putin and took Chechnya with him. Chechnya remains independent because Kadyrov keeps strong ties to Putin and cheerfully helps Russia with military domination of the region. He technically holds a Russian military rank.
Chechen military support is a key piece of the Russian strategy in Ukraine. Chechnya is conveniently located for the purpose.
Chechnya is not on most people’s radar, but it needs to be. Nothing against the ordinary Chechen people who suffer under their awful leader. But the Kadyrov regime is a source of endless trouble and destabilization.
And back to the horse … I wouldn’t be surprised if Kadyrov cares more about that horse than most of his own people. Not worried for the horse’s welfare. The situation is what it is, if I were the U.S. gov’t I’d write that one off.