I contributed $0.02 earlier up thread, but I feel the need to contribute a few more about the realities of the market Fred is in here.
I am somewhat local to Fred (90-120 minutes apart depending on route and traffic), so I understand the realities of the costs of horse keeping here. To simply keep a horse – any horse of any quality – you are looking at around $400/month for the very basics of care. So by the time it’s ready to enter training, you’ve sunk a bare minimum of $14,400 into it, excluding the breeding and mare care!
I also understand the realities of young horse development costs in this area. A decent trainer is going to run you in the area of $1,000-2,000 a month. Let’s say you put it in training for six months. $6,000-12,000.
Then there is the cost to showcase the horse. A single week at a show with the above trainer will be in the area of $1,000-2,000 depending on how much you can do yourself, how much prep, how many classes. That’s ONE show. Let’s say you do five shows. $5,000-10,000.
We have a $25,000 4-year-old horse on our hands if we hope to break even.
Now, let’s discuss the market. There are very few people willing to buy and bring along a green horse. I am one of the few. I spend most of my time competing against other ammy riders who have dropped high-5-figures to low-6-figures on their current mount. That’s in the 3’ hunters, folks. Again, there are some exceptions, but not many.
Case in point, we have TB hunter stakes. There were all of NINE entries in the last one. That tells you how many people are showing full TBs around here these days.
You can barely give away an average TB in these parts. I just popped over to the local FB sales group and I saw them going between $1,500 and $3,000. A far cry from the 5-figure pricetag of a half-decent WB or WB/TB cross. Remember, our break-even point for our foaled, raised and marketed 4-year-old is $25,000.
And breeding to a TB stallion and all the fuss involved when you can access stallions like these http://www.charlotfarm.com/warmblood-stallions.asp and these http://www.dreamscapefarm.com/Horses.aspx?PID=101 via AI without the semen needing to cross the border?
Now, as noted in my earlier post, I am a huge fan of AFR and his offspring based on my own personal experience. I do not think anyone can argue the merits of their accomplishments.
I will also admit to being a TB fan. Two of my biggest winners ever were OTTBs, and my current big winner is a TB/Trak cross. BUT, when I was breeding said TB/Trak cross to create my next super winner, and I was deciding what I needed/wanted to improve, I went to a full WB stallion. I wanted to add some height, scope and step. I wanted a slightly better trot so we’d move up from the mare’s 4th place hack prize to a definite winner in great company. And I also wanted some resale value in case my personal circumstances changed, or the foal was not the right one for me. Luckily, I got everything I wanted and more. AFR was still alive then, and I did consider him, but decided he wasn’t the right choice for MY mare.
FWIW, the mare Fred is breeding is not one I’ve seen before, but I knew her sire, Ali Baba, and loved him. I knew AFR, and loved him. I personally cannot wait to see what happens with this foal. I’m also dying to see Fred’s VDL Windsor H baby out of an AFR mare.
I think THAT is what’s important here. That Fred is breeding horses the very competitive market is EXCITED to see. And that the legacy of AFR as a TB stallion continues to have in impact on the quality of horses our local breeders are producing for that market.
A couple of months back there was a long and lengthy thread regarding the Gem Twist clones, and the ethics of breeding to them. Now, correct me if I’m wrong, but the whole purpose of cloning Gem Twist was to revive access to some TB sport lines that had almost died out. Thankfully, Fred and others are being very careful to perpetuate AFR’s prized lines so we will have access to them now and for years in the future, so we won’t have to face the same ethical dilemma. So our access won’t be through that many full TBs? That’s the reality of our sport.