Stellar "Upper Level" bloodlines top and bottom - Guarantee of success?

[TrueColours]

Thoroughbred and Standardbred yearlings are sold for millions based on their bloodlines at auction each year and many different “formula’s” for breeding nicks, probabilities, Dosage Profiles, etc are used to back up the reasons why this yearling should fetch millions at auction as a future runner as well as future success in the breeding shed.

Does the same follow true when breeding for the upper level disciplines? Whether it is dressage? Jumpers? Eventing? Do the breeders of these offspring (that will withstand the toughest scrutiny of bloodline experts - top and bottom) ask and get top dollar for these youngsters, based solely on bloodlines and a higher probability of success in future years? Does movement and/or jumping ability run true the same as racing ability appears to do?

I am in the process of buying a 2014 in utero with some pretty interesting and impressive bloodlines and this one I will be “putting away” for many years to develop and possibly have as a future stallion prospect if it comes out a colt. Will say more once everything is said and done, but the sire of this colt has shown in the International ring many times and is the sire of many GP competitors. The dam showed in the 1.5 or 1.6M jumpers herself, is by a stallion who also showed Internationally many times, was an Olympic mount for his owners and has produced many many upper level jumpers. Her dam is by another GP level competitor and producer and those lines are sought to this day as a reputable and reliable producer of GP level offspring in the dressage and jumper rings

So - in the same way as a TB or SB youngster would be analyzed for future racing ability, would the bloodline experts look at this youngster and say “Yes. This one has a better than average chance of success in the Big Ring and also a better than average chance of passing this ability on to HIS offspring in future years?”

Now I just have to hope it comes out a colt …

[2tempe]

Bloodlines certainly improve the odds in any discipline, but guarantees, not so much.

IMO racing people pay big bucks for bloodlines because 1. they can win big bucks racing and 2. they can get big bucks in the breeding shed if horse is well bred and successful. Really most racing people are both business minded and gamblers all in one.

Jumper riders and dressage riders seem more so to want proof of talent before purchase. The ones who command the really big bucks mostly are competing well up the ladder in their discipline. Yes jumpers can win some money but nobody wins money worth discussing in dressage.

The exception to show prospects selling at high prices based on breeding is the PSI auction. This German group breeds top bloodline jumper and dressage horses. Big auction annually in December. AVERAGE bid was 275,000 EUROS. only a few of the 48 went for under 100,000 euros and the top two were at 1,000,000 plus. They do much wining and dining of the big spenders, huge marketing process, and have the showing of the horses down to a science. Most are around 4 yrs old, so not proven in the show world. I know some horses from that auction that have come to US; Several have done well as dressage horses, but not international caliber, and not much different than some other horses purchased for much less money.

Though not a breeder of performance horses, I have to believe that “top dollar” for unproven but well bred foals is nowhere near the PSI stratosphere. It takes years to make a top jumper or dressage horse and obviously lots can go wrong. The people spending top dollar mostly prefer to use the horse now/soon. I think they are less gamblers and more lovers and participants of the sport.

[RoundTheBend]

I think not enough studies have been done on this- in Europe the very best of their mares are reserved for breeding. They often never get ridden. Then the mares that do make the top performance horses just don’t cut it as broodmares and produce poor stock- they say that the mare’s body can only be used for one thing- either breeding or performance. The body can’t give everything to performing AND breeding … That’s what they believe anyway. I have to say , I’ve never heard of many top performance mares produce top foals. But there are always exceptions.

Here is a link where Jan Greve explains what is meant about breeding from the performance mare! If you scroll down to the end of the paragraph headed ’ you are not only a breeder you have a training barn?’

http://www.horsemagazine.com/thm/2012/10/breeding-philosophy-with-jan-greve/

[TKR]

Even the Thoroughbred babies with top bloodlines are inspected before they get in the top sales venues for their conformation by people who are very knowledgable in that area. The bloodlines are certainly an important part, but the individual and their conformation, type, movement and talent and how well they train and try are also important factors. Buying in-utero all you can do is look at their parents along those lines and hope for the best. Good luck!
PennyG

[b]

Earlier on in my time as a small breeder, I went to Holland to visit and look for a dressage/breeding prospect. I was shown the pedigrees of the prospects and the sellers drew my attention to the number of horses in the pedigree with predicates. My friend/ translator/guide encouraged me to count the number of horses in the pedigree with predicates and to take note of how high an award had been given i.e. Ster, Sport, Pref etc. I was informed that if I was going to breed this prospect that I needed a star studded pedigree in order to have a high probability of producing top stock.

My experience with selling horses in Canada suggests that people here tend to look at the horse in front of them and aside from the sire, don’t seem to look at the entire pedigree to determine the value of the horse. Trying to sell a broodmare with an excellent pedigree with lots of predicates can be a challenge, if she is not the flavour of the day or tall, dark and modern! An OTTB mare with a pedigree that is not known for producing sport horses bred to a popular young stallion who is not yet proven may get more interest and sell more easily than a mare with a terrific pedigree for sport.

When the mare that I eventually purchased in Holland turned out to be a top quality mare (with a pedigree full of predicates) and earned her Keur predicate, her fate was pretty much sealed. She would be a career broodmare. You know the expression, “breed the best and ride the rest.” True to her pedigree, she is producing high quality offspring.

https://www.facebook.com/HiltonHallSporthorses

[tuckawayfarm]

Jumping is heritable, so by using top bloodlines you are increasing your odds of getting a jumper. There are definitely no guarantees of success and you are far more likely to get a 1.1m horse than one capable of 1.5m. IME, very few serious jumper competitors buy foals and even fewer in-uteros. Most want to at least see some ability in the chute.

[DownYonder]

A minor correction to 2Tempe’s post above -
Many of the horses in the PSI auctions were bred by other people - not by Paul Shockemoehle, or Uli Kasselmann (the partners who “are” Performance Sales International - i.e., PSI).

While a fair number of them may have been sired by a stallion owned by or standing at Schockemoehl’s stables, most of them were purchased in the months/year preceding the PSI auction. Basically, PSI has people out scouring the training barns in Germany, looking for young sensations that can be developed by their young horse specialists to “peak” just in time for the PSI promo videos and auction.

But yes, they have the marketing of the horses, and the wooing of the deep-pocketed public down to a science.

[arlosmine]

Not a breeder here, but I have helped a lot of “shoppers”

For Dressage in particular, I would have to say that the answer to your question is “no”. Stellar bloodlins are NOT a Gaurantee of upper level success. Yes, it stacks the deck, but your question was about a Gaurantee… there are too many variables outside of breeding that go into making a sucessful upper level dressage horse. Training is the biggee. If you are looking to produce a stallion prospect, in particular, you increase the variables and the standard for sucess even more. (a Stallion who maxes out in his competitive career at third level is no longer going to appeal to many breeders, when they can get access to semen from Grand Prix Horses who have produced Grand Prix horses)

Jumping is a more demonstrated inherited trait. It takes fewer years to get to a place in the sport to show real talent, and you can free jump a three year old and get a taste of the scope of the horse. Yes, you then have to invest in training to demonstrate soundness, gameness and ridability, but if the quality of the jump is there, you have a better chance of seeing it early on.

In dressage, some horses develop their gaits later, as they get stronger and have more training. (I think the stallion Devon Heir falls into this category)
Sucess in the upper levels comes after a decade of all of the dominos falling just right. Predisposition for the sport (breeding), training, soundness of body and the ability to take mental pressure all come onto pLay in equal measure.

There are LOTS of very well bred horses on Warmbloods For Sale. They are are generally not world beaters, even with fantastic pedigrees. A small percentage of the best bred horses make it to the top. No Gaurantee at all.

[Wits_End_Eventing]

We use a database we created of every horse who has competed at the CCI**** level in eventing since the change of format to make our breeding decisions - in picking certain lines, percentage thoroughbred, height, etc. I guess we will know how successful this experiment has been in another 3 to 10 years when we have offspring who are old enough to compete at the upper levels. A lot of what we have been told by “experts” is not what our numbers show. For example, try and sell a 15.3 hand horse and it is tough, but, according to our database, smaller horses with a higher percentage thoroughbred are more likely to make CCI**** eventers than the 16.3 hand plus horses with a high percentage warmblood who are so popular these days…

[andy.smaga]

Think about that: are the most pedigree knowledgeable people billionaires ?
If your answer is no, then you know that it is far from enough as a performance indicator.
Does a great pedigree increase your chances of getting a top performance horse, my answer is yes, it will increase your chances by 1 or 2 percents, then it’s a buyer decision to determine what’s the value of a couple percents.

[Galileo1998]

I can tell you with Tbreds the huge, huge thing is the mare family. It’s not enough to know what the mare has done, we want to know what she’s produced, and what her family has done and produced. All other things being equal a Sadlers Wells x Urban Sea would have been worth more than a Sadlers Wells x Zenyatta - even though Zenyatta has the better race record by far.

[ladyj79]

It’s not particularly informative to look at horses who have “made it” and say “yep, look at those bloodlines!” What’s much, much more shocking, especially in Germany, is to look at the number of horses bred EVERY YEAR out of top bloodlines at the TOP STUDS who NEVER EVER EVER do anything significant, if at all. There’s a culling process that takes place about every six months from birth to starting, and about 90% don’t make the cut.

[fairtheewell]

You can go to certain bloodlines to find a “type”, but you really end up having to look at the horse in front of you. Brothers and sisters of all horses, dogs, people, etc., are individuals but, as with dogs, there is a pick of the litter generally. JMHO

[Laurierace]

I assume you mean after birth. You aren’t even guaranteed a live foal, let alone a successful one. Pedigree is a valuable tool in predicting talent before the horse is old enough to be started. After that it all goes out the window and is up to the horse.

[vandenbrink]

I’m more interested in the mare family and what they have produced, than the individual performance of the mare herself. Many could be great performance horses with the training, but are far to valuable to show, and it often doesn’t make sense to invest into a show record. When I bought my really good producing mare, I bought her for all the predicates in her damline…(like b) and she hasn’t disappointed. Being by a popular good producing sire was a bonus, but I bought her on the merits of her motherline.

The other aspect of breeding not to forget is the precise combination of individuals and bloodlines. You could breed two international competitors, but they may not be a good match physically, or genetically. That’s the true art of breeding. Knowing what bloodlines, and individuals to combine to get a really great horse.

[TrueColours]

Thank you. Some very interesting comments and insights from individuals that I have a lot of respect for.

On pure paper alone, this in utero should be a star in future years in the show ring. It will be a fun journey to see exactly where he or she ends up and if the bloodlines did tip the scales in their favor

Now I am also really curious based on the comments made - what upper level mares in any discipline have produced upper level offspring in theirs or a different discipline? I am wracking my brain and cant even think of one???

[Krallen]

Not really. A solid mother line, a breeder who knows how to breed their mare and and also use the stallions correctly, and a dose of good luck will give you a chance at a foal that has the potential to be successful. Go to Europe and you will see hundreds of horses in one weekend that have pedigrees full of big names who can’t or don’t jump more than 1.30…just as you will see fantastic and successful horses with not so special bloodlines but there is a lot of knowledge behind the stallion or the mare family and the breeder knows how to apply that knowledge.

[ShannonD]

[QUOTE=TrueColours;7382460]

Now I am also really curious based on the comments made - what upper level mares in any discipline have produced upper level offspring in theirs or a different discipline? I am wracking my brain and cant even think of one???[/QUOTE]

La Silla has a habit of using international jumping mares to make international jumping offspring

And just one off the top of my head. This mare competed at 1.40+ internationally, as did her daughter, and granddaughter. They definitely exist.

http://www.horsetelex.com//horses/pedigree/96115

[RanchoAdobe]

Agree with above posters - it’s about the mare line especially for breeding stock. Is the dam from a mare line that had produced at the level you want. Sisters? What have they produced? Siblings that have jumped at top of sport ? Approved stallions from dam, grand dam, ect? What predicates are in the mare line? These are the questions I would ask.

[poltroon]

[QUOTE=TrueColours;7382460]

Now I am also really curious based on the comments made - what upper level mares in any discipline have produced upper level offspring in theirs or a different discipline? I am wracking my brain and cant even think of one???[/QUOTE]

I think Denny Emerson could name some for you. His mare Chestry Oak was an advanced eventer with upper level eventing progeny. Gold medalist Bally Cor produced successful advanced contestant Bally Mar.

We’ll see what Sapphire does… she’s certainly going to have LOTS of chances.