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Talk to Me About Upper Level Eventing Prospects

Eventing
#1

I’m curious what the domestic and international market is like for serious upper level event prospects these days. To clarify, I mean young (3-5 year old) horses specifically purchased with the intent to produce them into Intermediate/Advanced horses by riders with the skill and ability to campaign them at those levels.

I’ve been trying to educate myself about the H/J prospect market, and I would like to know more about current trends and practices in the upper level eventing prospect market as a point of comparison.

Specifically, I’m interested in the following:

  • Where are these horses [I]typically[/I] being purchased from? [LIST]
  • Domestic breeders? Oversees breeders? Young horse brokers? The track? Etc.
  • Are there specific breeders, auctions, or brokers that are particularly popular for UL prospects?
    • For example, I have heard the Goresbridge auction has become more popular w/ American buyers recently.
  • What regions are popular for import?
    • For example, when I was young I remember a lot of horses coming from the UK, Ireland, and NZ. These days I still see some horses from the UK and Ireland, but much less from NZ.
  • What should someone expect to spend on an UL prospect?
    • I realize this depends on lots of factors, but for example, what price band would a 4 year old UL prospect with decent breeding and no health issues that has been lightly started over fences tend to fall in? How much would this depend on region, import vs. domestic, etc.?
  • Are these specific breeds that are more sought after these days?
    • I know OTTBs are a great option for a lot of riders (and there are a handful at KY), but are TBs fresh off the track commonly purchased by UL riders as UL prospects, or would they typically get picked up after first "proving" themselves at the lower levels?
    [/LIST] Super interested in hearing what people think. Thank you in advance!
    • #2

    I can answer the OTTB part. I’ve seen a lot of UL riders pick horses directly from the track or after a bit of letdown. I believe they pick based on confirmation and probably a bit on temperament too - I would guess a lot depends on racing records and what jockeys and others have to say. Obviously future soundness is about the #1 priority. They’d also scope out movement for the dressage. Height is a large factor too, although some of the smaller TBs have a lot of scope and can be very catty.

    I know Elisa Wallace, for example, will bring along these OTTBs and then sell them if they are more of an Ammy ride or if it isn’t what she is looking for. Some people also work with organizations like CANTER. I’m sure some UL riders purchase after horse has been restarted, but I think it’s easier generally to buy straight off of the track as then the horse is a blank slate aside from the racing career and the rider can restart them the way they want to and not muddle through someone else’s restarting training. If that makes sense.

    TBs have the speed, endurance, and athletic ability to reach the upper levels easily. Most warmbloods that you’ll see at LRK3DE are at least a third TB if not more - Jimmy Wofford told this to me. However, warmbloods appear to have an easier time with the dressage and perhaps are not quite as excitable as a TB - though this really is horse to horse.

    2 Likes
    #3

    Look up Elise Wallace’s videos on YT… she explains on one of them what she looks for in her horses off the track. Blank slate OTTB are definitely a popular choice for all levels of eventers. If you want to read up about the OTTBs that will be competing at LRK3DE this year the RRP did a great write up: https://retiredracehorseproject.org/rrp-news-articles/1549-the-thoroughbreds-of-the-2019-land-rover-kentucky-three-day-event .

    1 Like
    #4

    I shop for upper level prospects off the track. If you have good connections, you can find very nice horses $5k and under. If you have to rely on an agent/middleman reseller, and buy off their farm, expect to pay $5-10k for the best ones. The advantage to buying off the farm is you may get to ride the horse, see its movement at liberty, and maybe free jump. Shopping at the track is cheaper but has more risk… you need skill to evaluate off a walk and jog in hand, and race videos. How do I try to pick a good one? Conformation, movement, and pedigree. If you know what to look for and don’t mind a lot of searching, or if you’re fortunate to have a trusted connection, there are a good number of upper level OTTB prospects to be found.

    From an economical standpoint, I can pick up 4 or 5 nice OTTBs for the price of one 3yo purpose bred event horse with UL talent. Not all 5 OTTBs may work out, but perhaps one of them will; and the purpose bred horse still faces the same challenges of soundness, bravery on xc, and surviving day to day life as a horse. I find the OTTB to be a better value, but it’s definitely more work to source them and retrain them for a new job.

    7 Likes
    #5

    A friend of mine has had multiple 2 and 3 star horses. She has never paid more than $2500 for a prospect. All bought in the US.

    My personal average is $5000 and all were/are OTTBs.

    Face it, back in the long format days, one never would know if a horse had upper level potential until they at least ran preliminary, and in reality you really only know if they had upper level potential when you did the upper level successfully.

    Today, with the hunter/jumperification of the sport and making XC just a glorified jumper course, it is easier to guess upper level potential. A good jumper prospect (e.g conformation and attitude) is close. Sadly, and stupidly, this means prospects will start costing the same as the jumpers because we will draw from the same pools.

    5 Likes
    #6

    I read this article and really enjoyed it! I also sent it to a few friends w/ OTTBs. It’s part of what prompted me to ask the question.

    I also saw Denny Emerson’s recent FB post, though (emphasis added): [INDENT]I am not so naive as to expect to gather up lots of high level dressage wins on a thoroughbred.

    I would not expect to win most modern, short format 3-day events at intermediate or advanced on a full thoroughbred, with so much emphasis these days on dressage and show jumping…

    I would not beat many Arabians in distance rides or races on a thoroughbred.

    I would be a tiny minority at hunter-jumper shows in 2019 on a full thoroughbred.

    But if I was a kid, and wanted to learn how to ride, to sit the trot, to see a distance, to ride in a trail ride, endurance or competitive trail, wanted to train a horse up to, say 3rd, 4th level in dressage, or jump up to, say, a meter 30 in jumper classes.or take a horse to Rolex, and I had, say, $5,000 or less to spend on a horse, and I wanted a horse who might well do any or all of those jobs that I just listed, there is only one choice—

    The good old, reliable, time tested, royally bred American thoroughbred.

    They have been stepping up and delivering for decades, there are plenty of them available, and anyone who can afford a horse can afford one of them.

    This guy, Tense, raced 34 times and won about $50,000.

    Let’s look at prices—Go to Europe, buy a lovely green prospect for, say, $25,000. Add $10,000 for your air fare and the cost of shipping, so you are at $35,000.

    I could have gotten seven like Tense for that----

    Sure, it is not for everyone, I do know that----But for those who can, what a fabulous chance for American riders—[/INDENT]

    His comments that TBs may not be as successful at the upper levels in modern eventing (or in the Dressage or H/J worlds) made me think. This brings @EventerAJ’s comment to mind, too.

    I absolutely take the point that you could buy 7 OTTBs off the track for the cost of one purpose-bred import of the same age, and that both could be equally likely to colic or break a leg in turnout, etc. If you have your own setup and have experience selecting and retraining horses off the track, that seems like a fairly easy call. But for someone without that capability, experience, and/or time for letdown/retraining, it occurs to me it may be more efficient to buy that more expensive purpose-bred horse from the start (or alternatively, to wait until an OTTB has “proven” itself at the lower levels to purchase it).

    I suppose another question is: out of 7 purpose-bred UL prospects, how many tend to go on to compete at the upper levels? Out of 7 OTTB UL prospects of the same age, how many tend to go on to compete at the upper levels? If the numbers are fairly consistent across both categories (2 out of 7, for example) then it seems like OTTB wins hands down, even if it takes a bit longer to get them retrained for their new job. If the numbers are really skewed (1/7 OTTBs vs. 5/7 purpose-bred horses), it changes the equation a bit. I know it’s impossible to actually crunch these numbers, but it’s interesting to think about!

    Thoughts?

    1 Like
    #7

    Absolutely. I’ve been out of the eventing world for some time and things have definitely changed.

    The larger emphasis on dressage and show jumping (and the abandonment of roads and tracks) is what led me to wonder if people are more commonly buying young warmbloods as UL prospects these days vs. TBs.

    #8

    Just bring someone knowledgeable with you. Sure, you may end up paying them a fee… but you could pay maybe $10k vs $20-30+k. In any discipline you pay a premium for already started “fancy” breeds. That is just life. If you went out and bought 7 purpose bred whatevers you can also run into the situation above of horses colicing, getting sick, going lame, getting injured, not having the talent you expected they would. If you have the money laying around to buy purpose bred or importing by all means that is a fine option. If you want the gratification of “DIY” and bringing a horse along then that is a great option too. I don’t think green riders need to be going out and getting unstarted horses or fresh off the track horses, especially without someone experienced with them (we’ve all seen what can happen in those situations), but for intermediate/advanced with a trainer to the seasoned pro there is definitely talent to be found with OTTBs. Horses are always a gamble and you’ve just got to determine what gamble you want to take.

    The dressage coefficient was removed. Yes, dressage is important… but if you can’t finish xc because your horse is tired or doesn’t have the stride or blood to make the time then dressage won’t save you (or you have to take alternate options). If your horse makes it through dressage on a high score and double clear xc but is too tired to keep from knocking half the course during SJ then dressage won’t save you.

    You may want to check out the AEC results (linked) and upper level events from past years and click through all the horses in the levels you are curious about. Just click the horses name and you can see the breed. Then you can see what is popular :slight_smile:
    https://useventing.com/events-competitions/resources/results/item?event=16869

    2 Likes
    #9

    I have two friends that run UL and bring along their own prospects.

    Friend one - doesn’t have the resources to buy expensive. Most of hers are OTTB’s or talented horse that are tough rides (so she gets them much cheaper). Don’t think she’s ever paid more then 10k. I’d say her hit rate for UL (calling that Intermediate+) is low in terms of % because the horse either maxes out, has a breakdown/injury, etc.

    Friend two - has the resources to buy purpose bred. She was doing OTTB’s for a while but found that the market is just way more limited if they don’t work out. Even if that OTTB is competing nicely at novice/training rated shows consistently for a few seasons, is competitive, is in the 7-10 yr old range, is competitively sized (16-17h), etc…it’s hard to get more then 20-25k for them. Versus she can take a 2-3 yr old purpose bred (unbroke) for ~10-15k, put the dressage foundation on, pop it through 1-2 BN rated shows as a 4 year old, and turn around to sell it for more like 30-40k. She gets a higher return faster as she often has to hold on to the OTTBs for 3-4 seasons before putting them in that price range vs the purpose bred takes 1-2. Plus the purpose bred are often easier to cross-market in the jumper & dressage worlds (where prices are also typically higher).

    Now, these are both riders that will take on prospects and sell them on once it’s clear it’s not the right long term UL ride for them (doesn’t mean horse is not an UL horse - but more that it’s not what they want as their long term partner).

    Friend 2 has mentioned that prices for prospects are steadily rising. She’s having to look a lot harder to find inexpensive ones. She’s also started delving into imports - mostly Ireland but also Czech Republic as good deals can be had there. NL/Germany are too pricey as you’re often searching in the straight Dressage/Jumper markets (not really the same purpose bred eventing market there).

    ETA: I have a third friend who is an amateur with resources. She purchased a jumper-bred and trained horse and repurposed it for eventing (it had the dressage movement too). I don’t know exact price but I’d guess it was at least mid-5 figures. Granted this was beyond what I’d call a “prospect” as it was already competing in 3’+ jumper shows when she purchased it.

    3 Likes
    #10

    Very sensible advice here, thanks.

    For myself, I’m doing jumpers & dressage these days. As a result, scope and movement rank higher than stamina on my list of desired traits (but I can absolutely see how that wouldn’t be the case for most eventers).

    #11

    Super interesting, thanks for sharing.

    Resale value/demand is important, esp. if it’s part of your business model.

    Out of the two, do they typically buy and sell horses at a similar volume? Would you say Friend 2 has a significantly higher “success” rate with these purpose-bred prospects actually becoming UL horses, either because they show better athletic potential for the modern 3-day format, or because they have a lower rate of injury? Or is it more that the resale market is hotter for them and it’s easier to unload them and make back your money if it turns out it’s not the right fit?

    I’d be interested in who your friend uses as a contact in Ireland, if you happen to have that information :slight_smile:

    #12

    Gosh, now I know what I’ll be doing the rest of the day :lol:

    Edit - In the Advanced category, it looks like 2 out of 9 are full TBs (one unraced, the other I’m not sure). There are 2 TBxs. The other 5 are warmbloods.

    Edit 2 - In the Intermediate category, it looks like there are only 2 full TBs out of 13 horses. There is one TB-Mustang (cool!). There are a handful of ISHs. The rest seem to be warmbloods.

    #13

    Ah, the eternal debate. I think no one knows if a horse has the ability to reach UL until it tries. Often heart and brain are more important than anything else and horses can be a surprise, either way. It is also noticeable that the higher the level the more ‘blood’ required, such that most 5* horses are at least 50% TB and usually a lot more. Even today, one needs a horse that can gallop to achieve the time xc.

    #14

    Sure, there’s no such thing as a guarantee when it comes to horses (except maybe that you’ll spend more money than you anticipate on just about everything). If you read my post, I’m interested in the current market for UL prospects. For example, where are people going to buy and what breeds are they looking at?

    #15

    That is one event. If you want to play numbers go check out bigger events. You’ll see a good mix of WB, ISH, WB x TB, OTTB, unraced TB, other crosses and interesting breeds. It is a big mix for sure.

    1 Like
    #16

    Totally understand. I was looking at the WEG team + alternates for 2018. Looks like out of 13 horses, there are 2 full TBs (Donner & Tight Lines) but lots of TBxs (mostly “sport horses” of some type, plus an anglo-arab).

    In contrast, the 2014 team + alternates included 5 full TBs (though only 2 look like American TBs). On the 2002 WEG team, all 4 horses had some TB blood (1 full TB, an ISH, a Canadian Sport Horse, and a TBxArab).

    #17

    @MustangTwist

    Oof tough to say who sells at higher volume as Friend 1 does consignment so I’m not always 100% what she owns vs what she’s selling for others (I’m also not as close with her). I would say she probably does more volume overall but in the lower price brackets (5-20k range). Friend 2 probably only does 1 project/prospect a year but will tend to sell them in the 20-40k range.

    I believe she’s gone to Irish auctions. I think there is one for ISH young horses (3-5 yr olds) that she’s been to.

    I think a complicating factor for the market (which is probably true for all the discipline markets) is that there are lots of 'UL prospects" being advertised that are extremely unlikely UL prospects. The number of times I roll my eyes at ads listing an 11 yr old [insert off breed/OTTB] doing 2’6 courses and schooled XC a couple times as “UL potential” – it’s amazing my eyeballs aren’t stuck in the inside of my skull.

    Even among the OTTB’s, most prospects that would actually be competitive in the UL (i.e. good confirmation, good brain, good enough gaits to be competitive in dressage, natural jump form) - unless you have the experience and sense to spot these diamonds at the track (and the current owner doesn’t know what to look for) it’s unlikely you’ll get them for under 5k. If they get picked up by an early OTTB-starter, you’ll definitely be looking at 5-8k before any real restarting has been done. As soon as they’ve completed a couple shows that price iwll quickly climb to 10-15k. Unfortunately, it seems to stagnate there and the price increases then slow drastically down.

    I’d say purpose bred tend to start at 10k and steadily climb up. Once at training/prelim you’re easily looking at 45-50k if horse shows appetite to continue progressing.

    2 Likes
    #18

    Check out The US Event Horse Futurity. https://theuseventhorsefuturity.com/. US breeders are trying to develop a connection between breeders and UL riders to produce the horses we need here in the US…

    3 Likes
    #19

    Hmm, it seems like there may be good value spending $10-15k on a restarted OTTB closer to the 7-8 year old range that displays promise for the upper levels (and has also shown that it can stay sound in consistent work, etc.). I suppose the downside would be if you needed to sell it in the next few years, even if you put in good show miles and the horse is sound, you may not be able to resell it for much more than you initially paid.

    Yes, everyone on the internet thinks their young horse has upper level potential :lol:. When I’m looking at a sales ad I’ll read the description and think “wow this horse sounds amazing” only to watch the video and be horrified.

    Would love to know which Irish auctions your friend goes to. Goresbridge Go for the Gold (in November) is probably the most the famous one. Here are the results from last year: http://www.goresbridgegoforgold.com/…-2018-results/.

    Here’s the 2018 catalog: http://www.goresbridgegoforgold.com/…-Gold-2018.pdf. Looks like there’s a fairly large range of prices - from $8k euros up to $59k euros.

    1 Like
    #20

    In the UK, word of mouth is really important. Many professional riders have horses for sale, either to owners or riders. There are agents who sell on behalf of clients or will look on behalf of clients. They tend to have excellent contacts in the sport. Potential owners often ask a professional rider whom they respect to look for a horse for that pro to ride. It is a small, tight-knit world.

    Prices vary greatly, but a really serious horse will be high 5 figures and more, with a proven record. BE is very easy to check for performance.

    As to breed, these days probably the UL majority are WB with v high percentage blood, simply because they are bred in huge numbers and are available. Paul Schuckamohle (sp?) alone breeds as many horses as the entire British TB industry does each year. Main sources are Ireland, Netherlands, France and Germany.

    1 Like

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