The Derby Trail 2023 thread

[findeight]

Yesterday was fun, the Gazelle and particularly the SA Derby and the Wood were exciting and gratifying to watch…lots of good things for some good people.

The Gazelle was won by the previously unimpressive Promiseher America who left the talking heads wiping egg off their faces. Totally dissed by the pre race analysis by “experts”, she got her up and coming trainer his very first graded stakes win. She’s a sleek, lean chestnut by AP x Unbridled Song mare who looked to have plenty left and was positively glowing strutting back to the WC, she knows what she did. Might want to watch the stretch run on this race…like she figured out exactly what she is supposed to do. She ran just .5 sec off the Wood time with the last furlong in 12 and change…the talking head wanted to reexamine that time as he thought it unlikely she did it.

If you can find the overhead shots if the SA Derby stretch run, worth looking. Mandarin Hero was stuck in the middle and getting knocked around but hung in and that jockey turned in a great ride between guts and patience. That impressed the heck out of me.

Tapit Trice still looks a little awkward out of the gate but certainly is learning, IMO still not sure about the Derby but really bright future on this one. Maybe the star of this crop.

Thinking back, 2 year old superstars over the decades often do not do well in the KD or don’t make at all, we got a little spoiled in the last decade or so. The trick is to get them to peak at the right time and stay there without getting used up. Bit concerned about Forte but he still won and should be a favorite if not the favorite but favorites don’t win the KD as often as horses just reaching their peak. Angel of Empire may also be reaching his peak with Oaklawn wins but may not like CD…

If Mandarin Hero and that jockey are their “B” string??? Oh my.

[Maythehorsebewithme]

Tapit Trice reminds me of an aircraft carrier: large, gray, slow to get going, but moves well once it does. He made a nice move on the backstretch to get into contention.

Seems as though the likely Derby favorites are mostly come-from-behind types. Might be an opportunity for a speed horse to steal the race.

[WinterTriangle]

@findeight

Angel of Empire may also be reaching his peak with Oaklawn wins but may not like CD…

If CD track comes up sloppy, I’d back him heavily.

[WinterTriangle]

@Maythehorsebewithme

Tapit Trice reminds me of an aircraft carrier: large, gray, slow to get going, but moves well once it does. He made a nice move on the backstretch to get into contention.

That was an excellent descripiton!

I always call those types “Big Body Benz”. Once they get going though, they motor along
at low RPMs and have plenty of energy left for a rally because they didn’t expend themselves fully running like banshees to 3/8 of a mile. To me the sign of a true classic distance racehorse…they are able to hold their energy in abbeyance.

(yet I HAVE seen horses who are good to 11 or 12F trained to burst out of the gate and run with the pacesetters, unfortunately, and they are considered losers because that is not who they are. We see the same thing in 9F prep races…horses who just “run out of track”…who need longer before they get going, and never make the Derby gate because they’ve never been given a chance to run 10F + where they would SHINE. )

One of reasons I think Tapit Trice is MUCH better suited to the Belmont Stakes than the KY Derby. A

[findeight]

Dont disagree there at all. TT is still growing…who knows what he can or cannot do.

[Maythehorsebewithme]

@Maythehorsebewithme

Wasn’t there a thread a while ago in which someone was wondering, maybe concerned, about where Shanghai Bobby had ended up? He seems to be doing just fine, if Mandarin Hero is an example.

Found it! From 2018:

Where is Shanghai Bobby?

I was reading the comments under the BloodHorse article about Justify’s stud fee. People there noticed that Shanghai Bobby’s fee is not among the stud fees announced by Coolmore and his page is gone from their website. Does anyone here know where he is?

[Rackonteur]

Looks like the Grand National without any jumps.

[Maythehorsebewithme]

So Forte is in Kentucky!
And wearing a classic Baker sheet.

Derby Roundup: Champion Forte Arrives at Churchill

So is Nest:

Nest Returns to Worktab

I guess Pletcher is old-fashioned in some ways.

[findeight]

Speaking of old fashioned, just realized May 6 isn’t only Derby day, its Coronation Day. So we can watch some horses and ancient rituals with a champagne brunch and enjoy the more recent ritual of Mint Juleps and racers at cocktail time. Maybe a toast to the late Queen thrown into both.

Sounds like fun viewing.

[Larksmom]

yes, that is usually xc day at Badminton. They are messing with the schedule so it won’t interfere. Dressage will be Friday and Saturday, and xc will be Sunday I think.

[mommy_peanut]

Wild On Ice was euthanized following a hock fracture sustained during his morning work.
Skinner is now in, if his connections wish to run him.

**Edited to reflect updated info.

Updated: Wild On Ice Suffers Catastrophic Injury In Pre-Derby Workout - Horse...

[Maythehorsebewithme]

So sad about Wild on Ice. His people must be devastated.

[findeight]

How often does a workout result in a hind end breakdown?

[Maythehorsebewithme]

@findeight

How often does a workout result in a hind end breakdown?

Horses. My guy suffered a catastrophic accident that resulted in his death standing in his stall.

[findeight]

They certainly are creatures looking for an inconvenient time and place to die. Often of inexplicable causes.

[findeight]

Normally by this time I have some favorites in mind. Not this year. Will wait until Fri night or even day of to commit, not unusual for another to drop out and PP can figure in.

Oaks, like Wet Paint and her trainer, who also has a couple of other nice fillies. And they are all fast.

Like PromiseherAmerica, not be as fast as some of the others, so far, but its the trainers first graded stakes winner and their first trip to CD. She decent enough and still learning. Be nice to see her do well. Certainly bred for it. AP-Unbridled Song mare. Southlawn, POTN-Uncle Mo mare, may also be a big factor, they both won very competitive races. Not that big a fan Beyer numbers but Southlawn ran a big one, but that was then who knows about Friday.

One thing about all the prep races for Oaks and Derby is the weather has been awful everywhere so, with the exception of the synthetic tracks, we know how most will deal with an off track.

[Maythehorsebewithme]

I will be rooting for Forte–like his owner. Worked hard, made his millions and is loving spending it on horses.

However, I think this might be the year a frontrunner wins. Does not seem to be much pace in the race, so I can see someone going for the lead and keeping it.

[Hidden_Oak]

Late to party. Just saw a pic of Forte. Hubba Hubba. Was not surprised to see Meglio when I checked pedigree.

[Mara]

I also really like Mike Repole. He’s always put the horses’ well-being ahead of his own ambitions.

[dressagetraks]

I’m waiting for the post position draw to pick my three (I always pick three). But I agree that a front runner type might take it this year. Kingsbarns looks good. And I keep looking at Derma Sotogake. The Japanese are improving all the time in their breeding program, and one year, even if not this one, I think they will win a Derby. Tapit Trice is my Belmont horse.