Your 08 Derby pick?

[Glimmerglass]

Was the terrible run by War Pass a fluke? Interesting this is the type of info [or rather lack of disclosure] that just gets punters livid. Big Truck drives off with victory

LaPenta said War Pass “wasn’t himself” and earlier in the week had a fever, a revelation that was not released to the public before the race.

The show pool was the most heavily bet part of the race, with 93.6 percent ($717,212.39) wagered on War Pass. The result was huge show payouts for the three horses in the money, $25.20 for Big Truck, $27.80 for Atoned and $76.40 for Dynamic Wayne.

When TVG was covering the race, off camera they asked Nick for an on-camera remark before the race. They cited that Zito paused - mind this was before the race - and said he’d prefer not to comment. Also he watched on the rail, alone, and intentionally far away from the media and spectators. It almost makes you wonder if he knew that WP wasn’t quite right.

AP 3-16-08 “Pyro replaces beaten War Pass at No. 1 in Run for the Roses’ Top 10”

(per the AP rankings: War Pass drops to 7th; Big Truck enters at 6th)

Circumstances may have prevented War Pass from running his best. He had a fever early in the week, was too eager in the gate and was pinched between horses at the start. Still, don’t count out trainer Nick Zito’s speed demon. War Pass could run in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5, then end up in the Derby on May 3.

Zito said Sunday that War Pass came out of the race in fine shape, although there were several cuts on his legs from being jostled at the start by Make Me Zach and Gentleman James.

“Everything is working good mechanically,” Zito said by phone from Gulfstream Park in South Florida. 'We’ll do more X-rays tomorrow, but thank God, he looks fine. That certainly wasn’t the War Pass we know. Hopefully, we’ll look to go forward in the Wood."

[WhiteCamry]

@Glimmerglass;3076133

Huge upset! War Pass looked terrible today in the Tamp Bay Derby and goes off 1-9 but finishes last … the winner with plenty of charge and heart: Big Truck

WP ran at 1-20 odds.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=WhiteCamry;3080064]
WP ran at 1-20 odds.[/QUOTE]

I swear it was final odds of 1-9 on TVG [meaning it would’ve been $2.20 for a $2 win wager] and the rest of the field at double digits. Watching it on tv with everyone so ga-ga and ready to see him win in a rout it just felt like it was doomed. 12,000+ people at Tampa Bay - their biggest crowd seen this year - and talk about wanting to see him not just win but by 15+ lengths, etc.

Nick is running a battery of tests although they scoped him and he’s fine there. However since he had a fever earlier in the week something has been off.

“If all the tests are negative and he’s doing okay, he’ll go back into training and work, and if he doesn’t work good then forget about it,” Zito said.

With WP dropping like a rock in the Top 10 lists its a bit odd that Pyro is suddenly the “it” horse even though his last couple of efforts haven’t exactly been ‘wicked incredible’.

[miss_critic]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3078088]

AP 3-16-08 “Pyro replaces beaten War Pass at No. 1 in Run for the Roses’ Top 10”

(per the AP rankings: War Pass drops to 7th; Big Truck enters at 6th)[/QUOTE]

That is a really odd top 10 list imo. Now, I am a Big Truck fan, but how does he move to #6 and Sierra Sunset doesn’t even make the list? Just to name one example.

Did anybody notice the payoffs in the Tampa Derby? In particular the win and place #s???

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=miss_critic;3081497]
That is a really odd top 10 list imo. Now, I am a Big Truck fan, but how does he move to #6 and Sierra Sunset doesn’t even make the list? Just to name one example.[/QUOTE]

Odder still is this Top 10 listing:

Philadelphia Inquirer 3-18-08 “Craig Donnelly’s top 10”

2. Big Brown Dutrow Jr. Desormeaux *6-1

He made a big visual impression with his second double-digit romp after a long absence. The Florida Derby (March 29) is the next target.

Number two?! Are you kidding me? Folks can knock Big Truck to some degree (he doesn’t appear in that top 10 list or even “others to watch”) but at least he’s run in and won a graded stakes race. There is a very decent chance Big Truck’s next start will be $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park on Apr. 12.

I see that “Majestic Warrior” is listed as one to watch. Not sure what you’d be watching other then seeing a horse that peaked in 2007 and having been passed now by typical late bloomers.

As mentioned before The Florida Derby - to be aired on ESPN - will be interesting with so many dark horses making their one and only chance to get into the Kentucky Derby with earnings and progress.

Tomcito (the Peruvian star) is purportedly being shopped around for sale with one having come very close last month. Typically when you hear something like that it makes you wonder if his connections are still confident that the horse is up for the task. However look at his workout at Gulfstream Park - impressive!

Last workout: March 17 at GP: 5F in 0:58.80

Worth noting he’s done two formal workouts since Feb 26th at 8F!

Gulfstream Park stable notes March 17

Jet Set Racing’s Peruvian champion Tomcito slipped into Gulfstream Park Monday morning to turn in a ‘bullet’ workout that solidified his status as a starter in the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) on Sat., Mar. 29.

Trainer Dante Zanelli Jr. had planned on working the 3-year-old son of Street Cry at his Palm Meadows Training Center headquarters, but called an ‘audible’ Monday and put the colt into his personal trailer and drove to Gulfstream.

Tomcito responded with a quick five-furlong drill in 58 4/5 under jockey Christian Pilares. It was the fastest of 24 workers going five-eighths that morning.

“I was looking for something just under a minute and figured it would be quicker because he was at Gulfstream,” said Zanelli. “I wasn’t expecting 58, but he did exactly what we wanted with the way he finished, the way he came back to the barn, and with the way he’s cooling out.”

Big Brown might have to get back on the UPS truck if Tomcito comes out guns blazing

[Glimmerglass]

File this under an almost forgotten as a “leading” Derby contender from 2007 …

“Kodiak Kowboy wins easily in return” March 14

Kodiak Kowboy cruised to a six-length win in his 3-year-old debut on Friday, when he captured a six-furlong optional claiming race in 1:10.21 at Oaklawn Park. He will be pointed next for the $100,000 Lafayette at seven furlongs at Keeneland on April 6, said his trainer, Steve Asmussen.

Kodiak Kowboy ($2.80) was making his first start since finishing third behind Kentucky Derby favorites War Pass and Pyro in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Oct. 27.

In the applicable words of Heidi Klum “one day you’re in, the next day you’re out”. Ah to go from being 3rd in the BC JV to next starting in a claiming race … err optional claiming.

[Glimmerglass]

I feel for War Pass’ owner, Robert LaPenta, who is taking a lot of heat from not so much the poor performance of WP but from his remark about the fever earlier in the week.

The disclosure factor is rearing its ugly head not unlike a few years ago with Martin Wygod and his Sweet Catomine before the Santa Anita Derby. Bet down as the clear favorite she didn’t perform and it was disclosed later she had been taken off ground for hyperbaric chamber work days before. However that was far more deliberate in the lack of disclosure … in this case the situation is far more gray.

March 19, 2008: LaPenta: War Pass was Perfect for Race

excerpt

What caused the horse to run the way he did after all his troubles, whether it was physical or mental, no one knows. But if there is one thing LaPenta is sure of, it’s that War Pass was 100% healthy going into the race. And as a person who believes in integrity, in business and as a Thoroughbred owner, he now fears any repercussions that might question that integrity.

“I can’t believe I could have a catastrophe like I had on Saturday,” he said. “If there is one thing everyone who knows me will tell you, I’m an honest person. I put money into the game, I bring my family into the game, and we’re having fun and having some success. It’s a great thing. How that could go up in flames overnight is amazing to me. Believe me, if there’s one thing in my life I take pride in, it’s that I never go home and lose sleep at night because I didn’t tell somebody the truth. I may make a mistake, but I never, ever lie.

“War Pass is a hot-blooded horse and his normal temperature is a little higher than most horses – 100.3. On the Sunday before the race it was 100.6, yet he was eating and kicking the barn down. He was fine. It’s not like he had a 102 temperature and was sick. He wasn’t even given antibiotics.

LaPenta still has Cool Coal Man on the Derby Trail and WP can easily bounce back.

“I didn’t see what everyone saw on the head-on shots. And when this horse came around the turn and into the stretch the world came to an end. I almost fell down; I was standing there in shock. I had no idea what happened; no clue. We still have no idea. I mean, we’re going to the Kentucky Derby with the favorite. We get letters from Japan and from all over the world. To have that explode like that, do you think I was in my right mind five minutes after that race?

[system]

TOMCITO

I think TOMCITO is ready to win the Florida Derby, and who knows be better than Street Sense, we’ll see how far he can go!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KVzIkFC-_o

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GfogN7mb0w

[ravenclaw]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3085222]
I feel for War Pass’ owner, Robert LaPenta, who is taking a lot of heat from not so much the poor performance of WP but from his remark about the fever earlier in the week.[/QUOTE]

I feel sorry for LaPenta, too. It sounds like the fever thing has been blown out of proportion. If War Pass had been a little sick (and it doesn’t sound like he was), I just don’t believe that they would risk running him when they could have waited another week or two and put him in another race.

I liked this quote from LaPenta:

“I still haven’t been able to watch the replay, because I’ll throw up.”

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3082615]
Tomcito (the Peruvian star) is purportedly being shopped around for sale with one having come very close last month. However look at his workout at Gulfstream Park - impressive!

Last workout: March 17 at GP: 5F in 0:58.80[/QUOTE]

Additional info as to why he did his formal workout at Gulfstream and not Palm Meadows where he is based … “Peruvian mystery horse”:

Tomcito had been training steadily for his 3-year-old debut at Palm Meadows until he shipped down the turnpike on Monday morning to work five furlongs here in 58.80 seconds with jockey Christian Pilares aboard. Tomcito then stuck around for the day, schooling in the paddock during the afternoon’s fifth race.

“I was very pleased with the work, even though he went a little faster than I had originally planned,” said trainer Dante Zanelli Jr. "He was supposed to have worked this morning at Palm Meadows but the water truck broke up there over the weekend. They couldn’t water the track the last two mornings, and I didn’t want to take any chances breezing him over a surface that might have been too dry."

As noted in the same article, Michael Matz’s Visionaire looks to be pointed to the Florida Derby as well. If he needs more time then he will be pointed to the Illinois Derby or the Blue Grass Derby.

[Tiramit]

As a professional marketer I have my feet firmly planted in the promotions camp BUT could there really be a Kentucky Winner named “Autism Awareness”? :eek: That harkens back to “Aspercil” winning the open jumper championship in Disney’s “The Horse With the Grey Flannel Suit”. Poor pony.

FWIW, I’m tracking Visionaire as my pick, despite his daddy’s shortcomings around 2 turns. :winkgrin:

[Barnfairy]

@Tiramit;3085589

As a professional marketer I have my feet firmly planted in the promotions camp BUT could there really be a Kentucky Winner named “Autism Awareness”? :eek:

'Nope. He’s hurt and off the Derby trail.

[Glimmerglass]

The first ESPN televised race is this Sat (3/22) at Turfway Park:

ESPN from 6:00-7:00 p.m. EST: Joe Tessitore, Jerry Bailey, Randy Moss, Jeannine Edwards, Jay Privman, and handicapper Hank Goldberg host the telecast

$500,000 Lane’s End Stakes (G2)
1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds*, Polytrack
post time approx 6:49 p.m. EST

*All starters carry 121 pounds
PP, Horse, Jockey, Odds

1. Duke of de Buqe, Julien Leparoux, 12-1
2. Macho Again, Miguel Mena, 10-1
3. Chitoz, Rene Douglas, 8-1
4. Rich Young Ruler, Thomas Pompell, 30-1
5. Adriano, Edgar Prado, 6-1
6. Racecar Rhapsody, Robby Albarado, 6-1
7. Halo’s King, Jesus Lopez Castanon, 50-1
8. Halo Najib, Kent Desormeaux, 7-2
9. Cannonball, Alex Solis, 9-2
10. El Aleman, Orlando Mojica, 99-1
11. Turf War, Patrick Husbands, 5-1
12. Medjool, Michael Baze, 8-1

Ken and Sarah Ramsey own Cannonball who has been based at Palm Beach Downs (FL) but its unclear if Sarah will attend due to lingering effects of her stroke. Another of his horses, U.S. Cavalry, whom he claimed had once this been a possible Derby contender but will settle for racing earlier on the day in the Hansel Stakes.

[Big_Holsteiner_Mare]

What about Lanes End Farm’s Grasshopper? I heard he did really well in Louisiana last month.

[miss_critic]

Does anybody know why CB was taken off Turf War? Or got off him (suppose I shouldn’t jump to conclusions here)

[ravenclaw]

[QUOTE=Big Holsteiner Mare;3086759]
What about Lanes End Farm’s Grasshopper? I heard he did really well in Louisiana last month.[/QUOTE]

He’s a nice horse, but he’s a 4-year-old so he won’t be in the Kentucky Derby or the other Triple Crown races.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=miss_critic;3086811]
Does anybody know why CB was taken off Turf War? Or got off him (suppose I shouldn’t jump to conclusions here)[/QUOTE]

Patrick Husbands on Turf War is just a reunion. Husbands rode TW to victory in the Swynford Stakes at Woodbine last September. So maybe the theory is that they worked well together on synthetics before …

[miss_critic]

I find it interesting that both Haskin and Moss did not put up a top 5/10 list this week.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=miss_critic;3081497]
Now, I am a Big Truck fan, but how does he move to #6 and Sierra Sunset doesn’t even make the list?[/QUOTE]

Speaking of which …Friday Mar 21st Sierra Sunset injured, off Derby trail

… was found to have a small fracture line in his left front ankle, according to his trainer, Jeff Bonde.

He said initial X-rays, taken two days after the Rebel, were negative, but further diagnostics revealed the fracture line. The injury means that Sierra Sunset is off the Kentucky Derby trail.

“It doesn’t require surgery,” Bonde said Thursday. “He just needs time off.”

Bonde said plans are for Sierra Sunset to be off for three months.

And thus another one on the ‘first Saturday in May’ trail bites the dust …

[Glimmerglass]

Per the DRF, Visionaire is skipping the Florida Derby for certain and most likely will go the Blue Grass Derby over the Illinois Derby.

Matz said Friday that Visionaire will not have his final Kentucky Derby prep in the $1 million Florida Derby on March 29, and that he’s narrowed his choice to the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne on April 5 or the Blue Grass at Keeneland one week later.