Your 08 Derby pick?

[Glimmerglass]

So much for saying “no” or “ulikely” - Derby fever has been caught by a long shot …

BloodHorse 4-12-08 “Derby’s Next for Cal-Bred Bob Black Jack”

A $4,500 bargain purchase, Bob Black Jack has earned nearly 10 times that amount, $442,925, including $150,000 for finishing second in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, a race in which he lead and was caught in deep stretch to be beaten a half-length by Colonel John.

Bob Black Jack will run in blinkers for the first time when he works April 14 in preparation for the May 3 Kentucky Derby, trainer James Kasparoff.

As for him being just a rabbit …

Kasparoff dismissed criticism that Bob Black Jack has distance limitations that would make the 1 1/4-mile Derby beyond his scope. Bob Black Jack, a son of Stormy Jack–Molly’s Prospector, set a world record Jan. 26 for six furlongs in winning the Sunshine Millions Dash in 1:06.53 at Santa Anita.

“He’ll have no problem going a mile and a quarter,” Kasparoff said.

[Glimmerglass]

Bluegrass SPOILER ALERT

In the Bluegrass Stakes - the question is: Pyro who? That flame wasn’t burning at all.

Pletcher’s day to be sure: 1-2

Monba, Cowboy Cal take it respectively with the long-shot (but noted) Kentucky Bear.

How bad was it for the favorites?

Finishing 11th was Big Truck!
Finishing 10th was Pyro!

[miss_critic]

The day was a wash, with the exception of Gayego. Look at teh Blue Grass and the fillies last weekend at Knlnd. There is no way all of them comepletely lost their form. The only one that was sort of running at teh end was Visionare…and if that is how he runs and doesnt hate the track, he is the only one I can say I learned anything from. I don’t buy what happened to translate into the big picture. I’m not saying all that flopped are stars, but they don’t all stink. Everybody failed to point out that all that raced really well last out flopped-BT, CCM,P, PS, CStar. I just don’t buy it. I certainly don’t buy Cowboy Cal. Monba…maybe…only a maybe.

[Glimmerglass]

Lexington Herald-Leader 4-13-08 “Race favorite flames out; Pyro humbled; Derby field wide open”

Then on March 15, War Pass came up dead last in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Then Saturday, even-money favorite Pyro all but walked home 10th out of 12 horses in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

It’s now official.

The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby is anybody’s race.

Todd Pletcher jumped back into the picture Saturday, saddling the surprising Monba and Cowboy Cal, who ran 1-2 in the Blue Grass in front of 26,000 at Keeneland to make Pletcher the first trainer since George Poole in 1971 to place first and second in the important Derby prep.

The link above also has video of Todd’s interview post race.

[Glimmerglass]

Seems stupid to me but Derby Fever does a lot of things …

BloodHorse 4-13-08 “Eight Belles Could Run in Derby”

Eight Belles, bred in Kentucky by Robert Clay and Serengeti Stable, is out of the Dixieland Band mare Away. She has won her past four starts by a combined margin of 30 ½ lengths, including her most recent score April 6 in the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park.

Porter said he still has to review the competition for the Derby as it stands after April 12, but that a long-term plan would have Eight Belles at least entering the Derby, should everything fall into place.

Assoc. Press 4-13-08 “Look Out Boys, a Filly Could Be in Derby”

However, Porter also said he will enter the filly in the May 2 Kentucky Oaks. Which race Eight Belles runs in will be determined after the Derby post position draw on Wednesday, April 30. The Oaks draw is a day earlier.

“The only negative is she doesn’t break sharply from the gate, and if she got an outside post in the Derby that wouldn’t help us,” Porter, who operates Fox Hill Farms, said. “Then we’d have the option of running in the Oaks, but I think she can run with the boys.”

Thirty-eight fillies have run in the Derby, the most recent being Excellent Meeting (fifth) and Three Ring (19th) in 1999.

If I’m reading that right it sounds like - and I really hope not - that potentially a slot will be occupied by Eight Belles in the KY Derby but she might scratch if it isn’t very favorable to her. So who knows, if she scratches and goes to the Oaks but only after being entered into the Derby, then only 19 horses will break from the gates …

[Glimmerglass]

Regarding the Bluegrass Stakes outcome: New York Daily News 4-12 "The Day at the Races "

Trainer Bob Baffert was right when he said Polytrack “makes good horses look average, and average horses look good.”

[miss_critic]

I don’t like the idea of waiting until after the draw to decide if Eight Belles runs. Are you even allowed to do this??

Hey Glimmer, are you getting HRTV now?
http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44595

[Texarkana]

I am sure all the connections who are on the bubble are cursing Rick Porter at the moment.

Eight Belles is a nice filly and I don’t necessarily disagree with their decision to try her in the derby. But it would be really aggravating to have an empty slot in the gate when one of the colts who’s been in (more) serious contention could have run.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=miss_critic;3148700]
Hey Glimmer, are you getting HRTV now?[/QUOTE]

It appears I will be getting … thanks for pointing that out! Hopefully TVG won’t be lost in exchange for its addition. They are adding it at the end of the month so we’ll see at that time.

Tomcito is a go for this weekend’s last chance - Grade 2, $325,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Let’s hope the polytrack surface won’t take him out of his game. I don’t think his workout on the surface today (Tue 4/15) was anything but good.

DRF 4-14 “Tomcito gets last shot at Derby”

Tuesday morning, Tomcito sharpened for the race by working three furlongs from the gate in 34.60 seconds over the Keeneland Polytrack.

“I think I have the horse to beat,” Zanelli said. “He is getting better and better, and he is not even blowing” after the work.

At least seven other 3-year-olds were considered likely to be entered when the Lexington was drawn Wednesday. Those horses are Atoned, Behindatthebar, Big Glen, Racecar Rhapsody, Red Sandy, Salute the Sarge, and Samba Rooster.

Red Sandy, owned by the Shortleaf Stable and trained by D. Wayne Lukas, would have to be supplemented for a $16,250 fee. The Florida-bred colt, by Yes It’s True, earned a career-high 75 Beyer Speed Figure in winning his last start, an Oaklawn Park maiden race.

The 1 1/16-mile Lexington will be broadcast live on ESPN2 on a one-hour show that begins at 5 p.m. Eastern.

The jockey, I’m gussing, might be for Tomcito this weekend possibly Edgar Prado …

[Texarkana]

I read Prado was possibly going to be on Atoned, but who knows:

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44592

Campbell said it is likely Edgar Prado would ride Atoned in the Coolmore Lexington, which is run at 1 1/16 miles.

[WindyIsles]

Any news on Cool Coal Man?

I’m hoping he does well. A friend of mine owns a half sister to him Kathleen’s Reel (sired by Lemon Drop Kid) :yes:

[Texarkana]

[QUOTE=Sassenach;3149169]
Any news on Cool Coal Man?

I’m hoping he does well. A friend of mine owns a half sister to him Kathleen’s Reel (sired by Lemon Drop Kid) :yes:[/QUOTE]

All I’ve heard is that he came out of the race OK and is indeed at Churchill Downs along with War Pass, Anak Nakal, and Stevil.

That’s pretty neat about Kathleen’s Reel. Is she currently racing her?

[WindyIsles]

[QUOTE=Texarkana;3149967]
All I’ve heard is that he came out of the race OK and is indeed at Churchill Downs along with War Pass, Anak Nakal, and Stevil.

That’s pretty neat about Kathleen’s Reel. Is she currently racing her? :)[/QUOTE]

Yep she’s racing this Saturday at Hawthorne

[InWhyCee_Redux]

Tomcito: Timeform Figures?

Do they exist? Or is there any similar ratings system that would have applied to his races in Peru? Let’s say the ENTIRE race falls apart and the mortal lock doesn’t run to form (e.g. Giacomo defeats Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road, Monarchos beats Point Given) — I think Tomcito will still be running. Maybe just not fast enough.

TODAY’S PICKS: Big Brow over Colonel John, Gayego, Pyro, Smooth Air, and/or Tomcito.

[Glimmerglass]

He no longer was really a contender for making the gate at Churchill Downs with his earnings below the mark (#39 with $70k in graded) …

Elysium Fields Off Triple Crown Trail

“We just decided to stop on him for a while,” Tagg said. “He’s still immature and he’s hard on himself. He has a little wear and tear, and we’ll do a nuclear scan on him just to check him out, although we haven’t been able to pinpoint any specific problem.”

Tagg’s other two runners: Tale of Ekati (#4 with $738k) and Big Truck (#23 with $194k graded) and are both likely to start in the Derby however Big Truck could get bumped depending on the results of the Lexington Coolmore Stakes.

Right now there are more then a few horses who really shouldn’t go but their connections are likely going to go any how.

Regarding Tomcito while he lagged at the start of the Florida Derby he did close to go from last to 3rd - threading a fair amount of traffic - to show he’s not a pokey horse.

Look back again at his last Peru effort in the Group 1 Derby Nacional from Nov 11, 2007 showed plenty of fight - he is cloth #2A in yellow.

[InWhyCee_Redux]

Sí, the Derby Nacional was impressive — not so much that Tomcito appears to be flying down the stretch, but that he goes around the whole field to do it.

[Glimmerglass]

Tomcito’s first two efforts in ungraded and relatively small fields are interesting. Obviously he wins by at least 8 lengths in each. I wish we could see what the final time and assigned weights are. His PP for the Kentucky Derby will likely have that information.

Video: maiden effort in Peru July 22, 2007 - distance 1,100m

Video: Second start in Peru August 28, 2007 - distance 1,300m

(Don’t worry about the language barrier - just look for the horse that is running away)

[InWhyCee_Redux]

Not exactly great times… but I’m still on-board…

Here’s what I have from the Jockey Club of Peru site, which is Spanish only and does not, apparently, offer split times:

October’s race — 2000 meters (1.24 miles) in a snail-like 2/09 3/5. Carrying 119 lbs. as a 2YO; older horses carrying 123.5 lbs.

November’s race — 2400 meters (1.49 miles) in 2.35 2/5. Carrying 119 lbs. as a 2YO; older horses carrying 123.5 lbs.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=InWhyCee Redux;3150404]
Here’s what I have from the Jockey Club of Peru site, which is Spanish only and does not, apparently, offer split times[/QUOTE]

Perhaps someone should offer them a stop watch Thanks for hunting that info down!

One of the recent horses on the ‘Derby trail’ but flopped just ran at Keeneland on the turf and easily beat the field: Nistle’s Crunch. 6th race 1 1/16 Miles - he looked very nice on the grass …

Regarding the merry-go-round of locking in a jockey for the Derby one of the big names has chosen his mount: Prado picks Adriano for Derby mount

[Beezer]

Well … if he can get in … I think Tomcito’s my guy. (Which makes me a traitor to the California cause, I know. ) I’m willing to overlook Pyro’s debacle, but man, that was ugly. And I remain enthused about Big Brown if not yet ready to crown him. How’s all THAT for wishy-washy?? :lol: :lol:

Steve Haskin has a warm fuzzy spot for Court Vision as a longshot. It’s been fun reading his and others’ takes on the ups and downs and ins and outs. It’s almost like they’re all ready to throw up their hands and say, “Anybody? Anybody want to step up and make a case for yourself?”