Your 08 Derby pick?

[Glimmerglass]

spin is defined as (among multiple uses):

7. To provide an interpretation of (a statement or event, for example), especially in a way meant to sway public opinion.

Example (from the DRF)

With his chances to make the Kentucky Derby field virtually impossible, Giant Moon began preparing for a different stakes race Wednesday …

When was Giant Moon seriously a Kentucky Derby candidate? I’m not trying to be cruel but as someone burned both with wagerng and having him in my “Take 10” stable he was all hype. Well just maybe he’ll see a piece of the Triple Crown chase:

trainer Richard Schosberg said Giant Moon would be pointed to the $1 million Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown, on May 17 at Pimlico.

Hmmm …

[Texarkana]

[QUOTE=Beezer;3150950]

Steve Haskin has a warm fuzzy spot for Court Vision as a longshot. [/QUOTE]

Steve Haskin also has a warm fuzzy spot for Monba this week. :rolleyes: :lol:

I’ve had a warm fuzzy spot for Court Vision all along. Do I think he’s the fastest? No. Do I think he’s the best? Not by a long shot. But I do think he will be plugging along consistently in the stretch, which is more than I can say for the other wishy washy colts this year.

[Glimmerglass]

So corrected with Prado and Tomcito:

Tomcito will carry top weight of 123 pounds in the 11/16-mile Lexington Stakes. He will be ridden by Jorge Chavez, who like jockeys Edgar Prado and Rafael Bejarano was born in Peru.

Source: Lexington Herald-Leader 4-17-08 “Tomcito trying to earn a trip”

Further:

But [trainer Dante Zanelli Jr.] does have some mild concerns about asking Tomcito to go only 1 1/16 miles.

“Perhaps his disadvantage could be the 11/16 miles, the shorter stretch,” Zanelli said. He needs to go longer. He’s a better horse, the longer they go. But I think he belongs."

[Glimmerglass]

The field for Saturday’s $325,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) at Keeneland (ESPN2 Live)
1 1/16-mile race on polytrack

Graded money payout:
1st: $201,500
2nd: $65,000
3rd: $32,500
4th: $16,250
5th: $9,750

Post-postion, horse (sire), jockey, weight, and trainer:

1. Atoned (Repent), Edgar Prado, 117, Todd Pletcher
2. Salute the Sarge (Forest Wildcat), Michael Baze, 117, Eric Guillot
3. Samba Rooster (Songandaprayer), Garrett Gomez, 117, Bob Baffert
4. St. Joe (Trippi), Miguel Mena, 117, Darrin Miller
5. Racecar Rhapsody (Tale of the Cat), Robby Albarado, 117, Ken McPeek
6. Felon (Stephen Got Even), Julien Leparoux, 117, Mike Maker
7. Behindatthebar (Forest Wildcat), David Flores, 117, Todd Pletcher
8. Tomcito (Street Cry [Ire]), Jorge Chavez, 123, Dante Zanelli Jr.
9. Big Glen (Cactus Ridge), Rene Douglas, 119, Frank Brothers
10. Riley Tucker (Harlan’s Holiday), John Velazquez, 117, Bill Mott
11. Red Sandy (Yes It’s True), Jamie Theriot, 117, D. Wayne Lukas

(Last year Slew’s Tizzy won this race at 40-1 odds)

[Glimmerglass]

Jay Privman at the Daily Racing Form has some interesting quotes from the trainer of Salute the Sarge. Not sure how the owner of the horse will take these comments myself.

Additionally Jay is pretty clear in saying (what a lot of us have been saying) that several of the horses likely to start in the Derby really have no business doing so.

DRF 4-17-08 “Worthy or not, it’s hard to say no to Derby”

“There’s one winner, and the rest, no one remembers,” said Eric Guillot, the trainer of Salute the Sarge. “There are 19 losers, and 15 who don’t belong, and we might be one of them.”

Salute the Sarge earned all but $46,800 of his graded stakes cash last year at age 2, when he won the Hollywood Juvenile Championship and Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar, and was second in the Del Mar Futurity and the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meeting. He has had one start this year, and has yet to race beyond 1 1/16 miles, 330 yards shorter than the Derby.

If Salute the Sarge runs in the Derby, he will go from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles in five weeks.

But at least he’s in good form. Other horses who earned plenty of graded cash as 2-year-olds, such as Anak Nakal and Massive Drama, are still under consideration for the Derby despite poor performances this spring. But they have the money, and in a year where few horses have proven consistent, there are eternal hopes in the spring.

The gregarious, fast-talking Guillot, whose appetite for food, women, and fun are all large, put it amusingly, though bluntly.

“A lot of people deny it, but they are jesters,” Guillot said, referring to the horses, "and the trainers and the owners are the kings and queens.

“If he wants to go to the Derby, or if he wants to go to the moon, I don’t care,” Guillot said of [Salute the Sarge’s owner Michael Moreno, a Louisiana oilman]. “The question is if we want to be the jester for the kings and queens.”

[Glimmerglass]

A couple of one time hot-shots on the Derby trail are going to be racing at Pimlico in the $150,000 Federico Tesio Stakes (to be aired on ESPN2) with hopes of success there meaning Preakness starts. These include: Icabad Crane, Cave’s Valley and the aforementioned on this thread - Wonder Mon.

[Maybeapril]

I have been reading lots of articles on the derby and everybody seems to say something different or exactly the same (if that makes any sense). I am new to following racing I have been watching TVG and reading Bloodhorse and listening to what everybody on the board says. So yesterday I decided to watch videos of the races myself and try to come to my own conclusions. I have been a huge Pyro fan for a while and so many people said to just draw a line through that last race. Which I accepted because I really am a fan of Pyro’s, but after watching his races I have come the conclusion that if a really fast horse gets out front and and really gets a big lead like War Pass (just using him as an example because I saw him beat Pyro once or twice) It seems hard for Pyro to make up that extra distance in his final kick. I watched Colonel John and was really impressed with him if he can bring his performance to the dirt. Also watched Z Fortune and liked him alot. What I am wondering is how all of you make your decisions on who you like? Also has anybody else noticed that about Pyro or am I just nitpicking?

[Texarkana]

Anyone notice Court Vision put in a bullet work at Churchill Downs yesterday?

This is especially interesting since usually Court Vision works slow enough that I could outrun him.

[QUOTE=Maybeapril;3154580]
Also has anybody else noticed that about Pyro or am I just nitpicking?[/QUOTE]

I think in the case of last weekend, he just never fired. But I don’t think it’s nitpicking. If someone can take the lead AND last, Pyro will be hard pressed to make up the distance. Especially with 19 horses in his way.

[Maybeapril]

I did notice that…very interesting!
Date: April 17, 2008
Track: Churchill Downs
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 46:20
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/25

I agree with you about the “And last” part, I did notice that with the horses that beat him in the past.

[miss_critic]

War Pass is injured. How fortunate it was caught. We’ll never know now if he couldn;t get the 1 1/4.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44680

[Glimmerglass]

It is a shame with War Pass although I didn’t think he’d win anyhow - not able to go 1 1/4 mi and the lack of his rating being major knocks - likewise I’m glad it was caught soon. Nick Zito (during the ESPN coverage) seemed so crushed from the news.

Bob Baffert’s Samba Rooster looked like Sinister Minister in the Bluegrass from a couple of years ago - speed, speed, speed! Amazing he held on for 2nd! He’ll be perfect for the Preakness Stakes.

I guess kiss Tomcito goodbye from the dream of starting in the Derby I assume as well he won’t start in the Preakness as he is not fast enough to try anything under 1 1/4 mi - I think the Belmont for his next start is likely.

Salute the Sarge proved he has zero reason to start in the Derby.

I don’t think Jeannine Edwards is a short woman but when she held on to Eight Belles in the shedrow it made her look small - EB looked like 17.3 or so. Whoa!!

[Dispatcher]

So, is there a consensus yet on who has the best shot?

[Glimmerglass]

Here is the 36 in order of graded earnings:

DRF 4-22-08 Graded Stakes Earnings List (Racing Through 04/21/08)

I’ve dropped the $$

# Horse
1 Pyro
2 Proud Spell (filly)
3 Tale of Ekati
4 Colonel John
5 Gayego
6 Big Brown
7 Z Humor
8 Monba
9 Court Vision
10 Z Fortune
11 Adriano
12 Recapturetheglory
13 Smooth Air
14 Salute the Sarge [I suspect still will start despite a dismal 2008]
15 Cool Coal Man
16 Anak Nakal [I suspect still will start, too, despite a dismal 2008]
17 Eight Belles (filly)
18 Cowboy Cal
19 Massive Drama
20 Behindatthebar [undetermined if going]

---

21 Visionaire
22 Big Truck
23 Bob Black Jack
24 Denis of Cork

Right now I wouldn’t be shocked if both fillies are entered as well as Pletcher’s Behindatthebar but potentially none of them actually run. If that happens, then it would be “just” a field of 17 starting.

All is fair in this sport when it comes to blocking out entries. However Churchill Downs would be less pleased if that was to come to pass as more offerings means more entry money and more wagering by the public so they have an interest in seeing all 20 slots filled.

Unlike last year with a range of story lines from the tough, always ready to go Hard Spun to the cheap purchase but heart of a lion Teuflesberg you really have a marginally accomplished field it seems here. Hard to get overly enthusiastic. Big Brown is an interesting story but I’ll wager against him pulling it off.

If Eight Belles gets a good position it will be nice to see and she is such a big gal that who knows maybe we’ll see another large gray filly like Winning Colors in the winners circle.

[dressagetraks]

Have settled on my final three. I always pick three, on sorta scientific and sorta hunch reasons.

Colonel John - best bet. Consistent, synthetic to dirt seems to work a lot better than the other way, and also, my brother is an active duty colonel.
Pyro - I just can’t believe the Blue Grass. Totally throw it out. Would worry if he didn’t have a lot of experience besides that, but I think he can bounce back to at least run well.
Visionaire - I actually liked his Blue Grass, for a colt who also didn’t seem to like the Polytrak. Michael Matz deserves another one. Of course, so do a lot of people who haven’t even had one yet.

I throw out the speed horses - will impede each other’s chances.
Throw out the fillies - I’d love to see a filly win but don’t think it’s likely.
Throw out Big Brown - I simply cannot pick that name.
Throw out Z Anybody - Ditto on names.

[Kenike]

Glad someone’s narrowed their list down. I’m still up in the air! :lol:

Give me 'till this weekend and I’ll have a list…I think…

[ravenclaw]

At the moment, my top 3 are Colonel John, Big Brown, and Pyro (in that order). But I also kinda like Adriano and I have a gut feeling that Gayego might do well.

That’s my list for now. I don’t think I’ll be adding more horses, but I’m sure the order will change several times between now and the race. :yes:

[findeight]

Time for moi to start figuring out how to bet this thing.

No idea, really. All my early picks are out or just too dissappointing in their last couple of efforts for me to think they will bounce back that big.

Gayego did a nice job last out and past winners have been coming up thru that race. Whole polyturf issue is too new to really get a good guess at the transition back to dirt in this kind of Classic race.

I dunno. Since I own a grey TB mare will use Eight Bells somehow if just a show bet…playing the grey seems silly but it works sometimes and is as good as any other hunch. Bailed me out of not getting a thing back a few times. Come to think of it, that’s how I got Giacommo a few years ago.

Doubt Big Brown will figure in. Too green and that tight little track is just notorious for crowd noises and tension getting to the colts with little experience. Unless he is a great one and then he won’t care.

Sooooo 10 days to figure it out. How is everybody going to bet this thing.

[caffeinated]

@Glimmerglass;3157497

I don’t think Jeannine Edwards is a short woman but when she held on to Eight Belles in the shedrow it made her look small - EB looked like 17.3 or so. Whoa!!

she is sort of teeny, iirc from meeting her a few years ago.

[Glimmerglass]

The actual draw will have some impact as well

From the Kentucky Derby ‘official magazine’ an example with post positions since 1900. (Obviously the number of years where all twenty slots are filled - or more - is only a fraction of the 107 years so this isn’t a clean stat)

PP: # of winners
1: 12
2: 9
3: 8
4: 10
5: 12
6: 6
7: 8
8: 9
9: 4
10: 10
11: 3
12: 3
13: 4
14: 2
15: 3
16: 3
17: 0
18: 1
19: 0
20: 1

Other stats that are often mentioned:

• every Derby winner since 1882 has made at least one start as a 2-yr old; luckily Big Brown broke his maiden Sep 3, 2007 at Saratoga

• not adjusted for inflation, only 3 winners of the Derby have ever been purchased at auction for over $500k US: [Fusaichi Pegasus '00; Alysheba '87; Winning Colors '88] while the last four winners all were homebreds.

• horses with only 2 starts as a 3-yr old who have won the Derby: '07 Street Sense, '83 Sunny’s Halo, '47 Jet Pilot, '45 Hoop Jr., '43 Count Fleet, '42 Shut Out, and War Admiral '37

[Glimmerglass]

Bob Baffert thinks Bob Brown could win the Derby - but offers up three other choices:

Baffert says dirt is going to move up the three horses he believes have a chance at upsetting Big Brown. He likes Colonel John, trained by his former assistant, Eoin Harty, best of all. Colonel John, the son of Tiznow, has won four times, including the Santa Anita Derby, and finished second twice all on synthetic surfaces.

“He moves beautifully,” Baffert said.

The Arkansas Derby champion, Gayego, led nearly every step of the way at Oaklawn Park. It was the son Gilded Time’s debut on dirt. Gayego’s best numbers, however, been in sprint races.

“His speed and class carried him home,” Baffert said. “I’m not sure he is going to like that last quarter of a mile.”

The colt he believes that is going to offer the best value is Adriano, who has won three times, including the grade II Lanes End Stakes on March 22nd, all on synthetic surfaces. Adriano’s only attempt on dirt was at the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, where he was shut off and steadied in the first turn and was quickly wrapped up and saved for another day.

“He is an A.P. Indy and has the right breeding to run all day,” he said.