Your 08 Derby pick?

[Glimmerglass]

Going back to the issue of Behindthebar and Denis of Cork I wonder if this “deal” was ever done but out of sight? From the Daily Racing Form there was a publish offer of owners swaping 50% stakes of each in exchange for Behindthebar dropping out and thus Denis going into the Derby, but the owner of Denis rejected it:

DRF 4/25/2008 “Owner rejects deal to get into Derby”

excerpt

“He did contact me after his first race, and he contacted my trainer earlier this week,” Warren said Friday from his office in Tulsa, Okla. "He wanted to trade 50 percent of Behindatthebar for 50 percent of Denis of Cork, with the idea of having Denis of Cork in the Derby and Behindatthebar in the Preakness.

“That type of trade was not attractive to me. My ego is such that I’m not going to break my neck to get into the Kentucky Derby. I think very highly of our Denis of Cork. But I’ve learned over the years that, for me, it’s best not to have partners.”

[Glimmerglass]

Going back to the issue of Behindthebar and Denis of Cork I wonder if this “deal” was ever done but out of sight? From the Daily Racing Form there was a publish offer of owners swaping 50% stakes of each in exchange for Behindthebar dropping out and thus Denis going into the Derby, but the owner of Denis rejected it:

DRF 4/25/2008 “Owner rejects deal to get into Derby”

excerpt

“He did contact me after his first race, and he contacted my trainer earlier this week,” Warren said Friday from his office in Tulsa, Okla. "He wanted to trade 50 percent of Behindatthebar for 50 percent of Denis of Cork, with the idea of having Denis of Cork in the Derby and Behindatthebar in the Preakness.

“That type of trade was not attractive to me. My ego is such that I’m not going to break my neck to get into the Kentucky Derby. I think very highly of our Denis of Cork. But I’ve learned over the years that, for me, it’s best not to have partners.”

[Glimmerglass]

Going back to the issue of Behindthebar and Denis of Cork I wonder if this “deal” was ever done but out of sight? From the Daily Racing Form there was a publish offer of owners swaping 50% stakes of each in exchange for Behindthebar dropping out and thus Denis going into the Derby, but the owner of Denis rejected it:

DRF 4/25/2008 “Owner rejects deal to get into Derby”

excerpt

“He did contact me after his first race, and he contacted my trainer earlier this week,” Warren said Friday from his office in Tulsa, Okla. "He wanted to trade 50 percent of Behindatthebar for 50 percent of Denis of Cork, with the idea of having Denis of Cork in the Derby and Behindatthebar in the Preakness.

“That type of trade was not attractive to me. My ego is such that I’m not going to break my neck to get into the Kentucky Derby. I think very highly of our Denis of Cork. But I’ve learned over the years that, for me, it’s best not to have partners.”

[WhiteCamry]

So … is Joe Drape at The New York Times that much a racing fan? I’m skeptical. :rolleyes:

BOYNTON BEACH, Fla. — “Come and pet him,” Rick Dutrow commanded the other morning as Big Brown nuzzled his nose into his trainer’s shoulder. “Really, he’s one of the neatest horses I’ve ever been around.”

I stepped into his stall, reached and asked the strapping chestnut, “Are you the Kentucky Derby winner?”

Big Brown turned, lifted his head and nodded in the affirmative. Don’t believe me? Ask Dutrow, who had just finished telling me that he was making a big bet on his colt on the first Saturday in May.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=WhiteCamry;3175866]
So … is Joe Drape at The New York Times that much a racing fan? I’m skeptical. :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

Drape was pretty much savaged by the folks on the NYT’s racing blog over his color comments for Big Brown. The Rail Blog (NYTs) 4-22 “Big Brown, the Big Bay” by Joe Drape

Big Brown is a bay, and I am, indeed, a bit colorblind. Check my socks the next time you see me. I take the hit here - to see the difference, you only need to compare Secretariat and this year’s early Derby favorite.

[Glimmerglass]

An interesting resource with the odds of past Derby, Preakness and Belmont runners:

http://www.tbcprojects.com/career.php

[Glimmerglass]

We’ll see what Eight Belles will get and if she’s going …

ESPN2
Wednesday Apr 30 @ 5 pmEST/4pm CST Live - The Kentucky Derby Draw

[Barnfairy]

Complete randomness, just for fun: Foaling dates of Derby Contenders

Adriano’s just a baby!

'Come to discover, good things happen on April 20th: I didn’t realize my Rasor D shares a birthday with Funny Cide (and my husband too).

[Texarkana]

The random drawing for the order of selection for today’s post position draft has been set:

1. Visionaire
2. Big Truck
3. Colonel John
4. Z Fortune
5. Pyro
6. Eight Belles
7. Anak Nakal
8. Court Vision
9. Z Humor
10. Monba
11. Smooth Air
12. Adriano
13. Bob Black Jack
14. Denis of Cork
15. Cowboy Cal
16. Big Brown
17. Tale of Ekati
18. Cool Coal Man
19. Recapturetheglory
20. Gayego

This means Michael Matz will get first crack at the post position of his choice, and Paul Lobo will get the leftovers.

Rick Dutrow isn’t going to have too many choices for Big Brown by the time they get to him.

[ravenclaw]

Larry Jones should be happy. He gets to pick early so Eight Belles won’t get stuck on the outside.

Colonel John and Pyro get to pick early, but I feel sorry for poor Gayego.

[Glimmerglass]

Larry scored big with that #6 order of selection; my guess if its not taken by the time he and Rick go to make their selection they’ll choose PP 4 or PP 5. Not quite the rail and needing that massive ruch of speed but very ground saving none the less.

Looks like Big Brown will get hung way out wide as I bet post positions 17 - 20 will be all thats left by the time their #16 selection comes up.

[Texarkana]

What’s interesting is that all the speed of the race will be selecting later in the draft. Depending on what the trainers of horses 1-12 choose, this could mean that all the speed horses will be breaking from the outside.

You’ve got Bob Black Jack with selection 13… the rail will probably still be open by then.

But the rest of the speed horses (Cowboy Cal, Big Brown, Recapturetheglory, and Gayego) might be stuck pretty darn wide.

Although nothing is set in stone yet… maybe the early picks will surprise us.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Texarkana;3178809]
What’s interesting is that all the speed of the race will be selecting later in the draft. Depending on what the trainers of horses 1-12 choose, this could mean that all the speed horses will be breaking from the outside.[/QUOTE]

Since the race needs pace, I wouldn’t be shocked if picks 1-15 avoid the rail and thus #16, Big Brown, is coaxed into that spot. The field wants him and Bob Black Jack to burst away or else this could be one heck of a slow, cautious race.

[Texarkana]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3178817]
Since the race needs pace, I wouldn’t be shocked if picks 1-15 avoid the rail and thus #16, Big Brown, is coaxed into that spot. The field wants him and Bob Black Jack to burst away or else this could be one heck of a slow, cautious race.[/QUOTE]

True, but I also don’t think anyone wants Big Brown running away with the field.

Leaving the rail open for Big Brown would basically be like handing him the roses.

I think it’s very unfortunate for EVERYONE that Recapturetheglory and Gayego will be selecting after Big Brown.

[Glimmerglass]

Interesting from the NYT’s on Big Brown and Kent Desormeaux actually mixing together

Dutrow is not the first trainer to fret about whether his horse and rider fit each other. In fact, most trainers try to avoid sleepless nights by keeping their afternoon jockeys off their horses during the morning training. They are like racecar teams that say the car is best left to the mechanics to work out the kinks before the driver takes over.

Now, with few solitary moments, the soul-searching is over for Dutrow. Sort of.

“I know the kid loves Big Brown,” Dutrow said of Desormeaux. “I know I’m overthinking it, but that’s my job. Now, let’s hope Big Brown loves him back.”

[dressagetraks]

My 3 picks (Colonel John, Pyro, Visionaire) all look in good shape. I’m really pulling for Colonel John, as my brother just made colonel recently.

Guess this answers whether Eight Belles will go in the Derby or Oaks.

Poor Gayego. I liked his race at Oaklawn. Would be nice to have him do it, just because I saw him live in Arkansas and have some pictures, but I doubt it, and doubt it even more after the draw.

[Texarkana]

In case anyone was wondering:

Anak Nakal means “Devious Child” in Indonesian.

I think it was rather devious of him to start throwing clunkers promptly after I added him to all my derby fantasy stables.

[Glimmerglass]

re: Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw on ESPN2

Ah, yes, not unlike a few years ago with the Little League players it looks like horse racing fans gets the shaft as European Soccer (!) drifts into the live time slot. A reported 10 more minutes to go …

[animaldoc]

Draw is live on the web

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/
So far:
Visionaire 8
Big Truck 7
Colonel John 10…

[animaldoc]

Z fortune 6
Pyro 9
Waiting and waiting on Eight Belles…