Eight Belles 5
Anak Nakal 3
Court Vision 4
Z Humor 11
Monba 14
Smooth Air 12
Adriano 15
Bob Black Jack 13
Denis of Cork 16
Cowboy Cal 17
Waiting on Big Brown…
C’mon…it’s not THAT hard…there’s only 5 spots left!
Big Brown 20
(gotta go- you guys will hear the rest anyway!)
Now that’s what I call Cojones.
Never had much time for Dutrow, but if he pulls this off, I’ll tip my hat to him.
You know … I truly hope Big Brown pulls it off. The logical part of me says it ain’t gonna happen, but the Pollyanna-ish little girl still lurking someplace inside me sure as hell hopes he does.
More logically, I have to go with the Colonel and Pyro.
But I’ll be screaming for Big Brown. 
And if he wins, I can just picture the UPS ad campaign. :lol:
Breaking from post 20 and still pegged with the ML of 3-1? That is a sucker bet
Post Position—Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning-Line Odds
1 Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux, Nick Zito, 20-1
2 Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa, Barclay Tagg, 15-1
3 Anak Nakal, Raphael Bejarano, Nick Zito, 30-1
4 Court Vision, Garrett Gomez, Bill Mott, 20-1
5 Eight Belles (f), Gabriel Saez, Larry Jones, 15-1
6 Z Fortune, Robby Albarado, Steve Asmussen, 30-1
7 Big Truck, Javier Catellano, Barclay Tagg, 50-1
8 Visionaire, Jose Lezcano, Michael Matz, 20-1
9 Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan, Steve Asmussen, 6-1
10 Colonel John, Corey Nakatani, Eoin Harty, 4-1
11 Z Humor, Rene Douglas, Bill Mott, 30-1
12 Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz, Bennie Stutts Jr., 20-1
13 Bob Jack Black, Rich Migliore, James Kasparoff, 20-1
14 Monba, Ramon Dominguez, Todd Pletcher, 15-1
15 Adriano, Edgar Prado, Graham Motion, 30-1
16 Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel, David Carroll, 20-1
17 Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 20-1
18 Recapturetheglory, E.T. Baird, Louie Roussel, 20-1
19 Gayego, Mike Smith, Paulo Lobo, 15-1
20 Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux, Rick Dutrow Jr., 3-1
I still have Denis of Cork in the 2nd futures pool at odds above 45-1 I do like Eight Belles at 15-1 for at least place or show
what can (Big) Brown do for you?
I had a feeling Dutrow would be ballsy and take the outside… I mean, the guy said there wasn’t a single post position that would concern him and he had to go sky diving to “relax”!
It completely stinks that 4 of the 5 front-runners are breaking from posts 17-20. I really don’t feel like watching 20 horses crawl a quarter in 25 seconds because none of the pace horses could get in position. Hopefully that won’t happen.
For the record who is the only horse to win from the “20th” post position?
Well none in the modern era and thus pre-starting gate so the horse who did so was via a walkup: 1929 Derby champion Clyde Van Dusen.
Explain to me how Big Truck is sitting at 50-1 and Anak Nakal and Z Humor are both at 30-1.
scratches head
My money is definitely on Big Truck out of those 3!
Here’s a site with a lot of pictures. Some repeats, one I think is not identified right, but nice look at the horses and more:
http://kids.aol.com/KOL/2/Sports/PhotoGallery/kentucky-derby
Okay, in no particular order:
Colonel John
Visionaire
Eight Belles
Smooth Air
I couldn’t come down to three. I like Big Brown, but I’m really disliking Dutrow and his cockiness. Then throw in his foot problems and the post position (real cajones, I agree) and I think things could very well be stacked against him. I hope he puts in a good race, I won’t be disappointed if he takes it all, but I just don’t like Dutrow right now.
Hmm …
I usually bet after the saddling/post parade (I like to see them right before the race and take “gut feeling” into account) but my thoughts for now:
- Court Vision
- Colonel John
- Visionaire
Adriano gets special mention - how beautiful is he?!
[QUOTE=k8tee;3180353]
Adriano gets special mention - how beautiful is he?![/QUOTE]
As an aside, Adriano had a close call and had to duck into the barn of D. Wayne Lukas on Tuesday.
“He asked if we needed a stall for him, but we scooted out the other end,” Adriano trainer Graham Motion said. “He was very gracious. … It could have been hairy, but it was fine.”
The encounter may have been the only hiccup in what Motion described as an uneventful week for Adriano, who most recently won the Grade II Lane’s End at Turfway Park.
The son of A.P. Indy had finished ninth in his previous race – the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park – but Motion said the horse “fell apart” in the paddock that day. The trainer has been happy with Adriano’s demeanor this week.
“I don’t know how he’s going to behave in front of 150,000 people, but I’m really impressed with how well he’s done,” said Motion, making his second Derby appearance after training 11th-place finisher Chilito in 1998. "We walked around the paddock for 10 minutes earlier, and he was like an old jumper.
“He’s really switched off, and that’s what I was hoping for.”
With the Lane’s End taking place on March 22, Adriano will enter the Derby off a six-week layoff – the longest of any horse in the field. Motion said he’s not worried about that statistic.
[QUOTE=forward ride;3179664]
what can (Big) Brown do for you?[/QUOTE]
Yep - and UPS to sponsor Big Brown in Derby (no joke)
Jockey Kent Desormeaux will sport UPS-branded pants as he rides Big Brown, a horse named after the Atlanta-based package shipping giant.
“Having UPS riding with us on Saturday is a tremendous honor, and we look forward to cheering on our horse in one of the greatest sporting events in the world,” said Richard Schiavo, co-president and CEO of International Equine Acquisitions Holdings Inc., which owns IEAH Stables.
Showing my ignorance…
But why wouldn’t Dutrow have picked 1 or 2 and then gotten Big Brown out of traffic? He has the initial speed (unless they didn’t want him to burn it all up in the beginning)…??
[QUOTE=animaldoc;3181375]
But why wouldn’t Dutrow have picked 1 or 2 and then gotten Big Brown out of traffic? He has the initial speed (unless they didn’t want him to burn it all up in the beginning)…??[/QUOTE]
In this article it says he chose 20 because he’s assured a clean trip, although I think he’s forgetting that there are no guarantees in the cavalry charge that is the Kentucky Derby. 
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/44973.htm
“We prefer just to break on the outside,” said Richard Dutrow, Jr., who trains Big Brown. “We get assured of a clean trip. If he breaks good, we figure it’s to our advantage. We had a few choices and felt we took the best shot.”
Big Brown did break from the inside post with a pretty large field in his maiden race… but that was on grass. He’s been wide in all of his dirt starts.
Okay, my pick is Colonel John.
But I won’t be upset if Big Brown, Pyro, Gayego, or Eight Belles wins. I like Big Brown (the horse) and I hope he’s the real deal, but I have decided I can’t pick him on principle because of his obnoxious trainer. :winkgrin:
Texarkana – I’m confused about the odds, too. Big Truck shouldn’t be 50-1 and there are several that are 20-1 or 30-1 that should be 50-1.
[QUOTE=Texarkana;3181542]
In this article it says he chose 20 because he’s assured a clean trip, although I think he’s forgetting that there are no guarantees in the cavalry charge that is the Kentucky Derby.[/QUOTE]
Which is interesting as Jerry Bailey, who knows a thing or two, said during ESPN2’s telecast of the draw that the pick was not what he expected.
He cited that at the 20th spot you are so close to the screaming fans along the wall that it rattles a lot of horses. It is one thing to break from the 18th hole and yet have horses on both sides, but far different to run for a few furlongs next to 120,000 screaming people.
One again Todd Pletcher was praised for the smart move with the pick for Monba - why? Because he’ll now break from the last stall in the main starting gate (PP 14) thus affording the Blue Grass winner a cushion to post 15 which is the first stall in the auxiliary gate. That’s actually a few feet of space acting as a nice buffer.
Never a negative woman, Penny Chenery did say that she did not expect a TC winner for 2008. Not knocking the field as per say but rather “I [Chenery] think it’s a wide-open race.”
In fact she lamented the way racing/breeding are changed now. Keep in mind Big Red was foreced off the track not because of having to syndicate him at 2-yrs old to pay the IRS bill on her father’s estate:
“It’s really hard to do today [win the Triple Crown] because we breed horses for sales rather than racing,” Chenery said. “Unless there’s a really precocious horse, I’ll be terribly surprised to see another Triple Crown winner. It’s the nature of what we’re doing to the horse.”
