Your 08 Derby pick?

[Glimmerglass]

The DRF has their horse by horse feedback of today’s workouts (5/1):

some of the quips

Eight Belles: Rolled through her final work, although showed a propensity to lug in toward the rail, which is perhaps cause for some concern considering the task that lies ahead. One thing in her favor is that she’s a physically imposing filly who on looks, at least, fits right with the boys.

Big Truck: Was full of run in his local workout, but the early pace took its toll as he tired noticeably nearing the wire and during his gallop-out. Has bounced back extremely well off that work, with a couple of very aggressive gallops Wednesday and Thursday.

Anak Nakal: Couldn’t find any fault with his training over the past week. The way he zipped through a half-mile work in 46.52 seconds despite a late lead switch indicates he’s coming into the race razor sharp, although I’m not sure even his best will be good enough in this spot.

DRF writer and ESPN on-air contributor Jay Privman couldn’t have been (on air today) any more against Eight Belles being in the Derby. He said without so much as a flinch that she had zero chance to win it.

[Glimmerglass]

As an aside, Richard Migliore who is slated to ride Bob Black Jack had to bail (and hit the ground rather hard on his side) off the maiden 2-yr old “Crude Oil” at Hollywood Park minutes ago. He’s ok but I suspect will be physically sore.

[Drvmb1ggl3]

@Glimmerglass;3181905

Which is interesting as Jerry Bailey, who knows a thing or two, said during ESPN2’s telecast of the draw that the pick was not what he expected.

He cited that at the 20th spot you are so close to the screaming fans along the wall that it rattles a lot of horses. It is one thing to break from the 18th hole and yet have horses on both sides, but far different to run for a few furlongs next to 120,000 screaming people.

That’s a bit of Hyperbole. They are all over in near the inside rail in the first 50-100yds. Noone runs next to the stands for a few furlongs.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Drvmb1ggl3;3182160]
That’s a bit of Hyperbole. They are all over in near the inside rail in the first 50-100yds. Noone runs next to the stands for a few furlongs.[/QUOTE]

Yep, my error (not Jerry’s) in citing furlongs - it should’ve been yards. The first corner at Churchill isn’t terribly far away.

Perhaps a bad omen - Associated Press 5-1-08 “Hillary Clinton makes filly her Derby pick”

Presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton has urged a group of supporters to put their money on Eight Belles, the only filly in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

AP Photo: trainer Larry Jones aboard Eight Belles

[CAH]

Well, I was a Big Brown fan until I heard that he drew the 20 post. If he can pull off the win from the outside then IMO he will be a superhorse. I like Colonel John - but am cautious about the switch to dirt. Court Vision is up there too.

Too many variables, too many unknowns in this race.

[findeight]

Soooo…how to bet this thing???

Thinking I am going to do some straght bets only, very modest amounts, on about 5 of them and skip the exotics-I’ll be lucky to get a couple in the top 5 with this buch, let alone in any kind of order.

Curious Battaglia is still setting BB as the fav…is it true only he and Gayego have 100+ speed figures?

What’s the feeling on Court Vision wiht the blinker, he any good? SA has two in there…any feelings on them?

Anyway, likely go with those in the good PPs from 5 to 10 or so, seems some nicer colts there.

Hey, are there any stats on Polyturf over to less the fast dirt? Friday morning now and it’s fixing to storm…clear by tomorrow PM but doubt it’s going to be an honest fast.

[Texarkana]

@findeight;3183231

Curious Battaglia is still setting BB as the fav…is it true only he and Gayego have 100+ speed figures?

No. Recapturetheglory (102) and Z Fortune (102) also had 3 digit beyers in their last preps.

Several other horses have made 100+ beyers in the past, including:
Pyro (career best 105 in the BC juv)
Bob Black Jack (WR at 6f with a 109 beyer)
Eight Belles (100 in a mile allowance back in Jan.)

As far as how to bet this thing… your guess is as good as anyone else’s at this point! :lol:

[Glimmerglass]

And if you are bored today you can always play: the game Shaq at the Derby

Also in the DRF print edition you’ll see ads for Shaq (and Vitaminwater) this weekend in which O’Neal directly addresses the National Thoroughbred Racing Association and trainers, announcing his desire to saddle up and run for the roses on May 3.

“I’m willing to ride any derby entry,” writes O’Neal “Pyro, Big Brown, Colonel John - give me any one!”

[Glimmerglass]

Typical well done video compilation from Carly Kaiser on youtube.com of the contenders moments of glory bringing them to the Derby. I’m not sure about the music from Back To the Future as there will be no DeLorean at Louisville

[C.J]

Any of yall seen the workouts this week? I’ve heard Denis of Cork has been working really strong–thoughts on him?

[Smiles]

What are thoughts on pyro since his showing at the bluegrass was not so good? Also what about Matz’s horse?

[Glimmerglass]

Just some of my thoughts - take them as you wish as I think this year’s race could be won by any horse as it is not always the most swift but a degree of luck that takes a horse to the victory

Pyro’s Blue Grass should be tossed out. Dirt-based horses just don’t perform on synthetics. With Churchill being good old dirt he should return to solid form - however he’s not exactly a fireball contrary to his name. His speed figs are, with all due respect, low.

Closers on polytrack do not tend to do well on dirt. So those horses who have run with success on sythetics only with a closing style should be viewed with a cautious eye. Don’t worry a CA-devoted shipper like Bob Black Jack is no closer

Horses I just likely won’t wager on (to win): Denis of Cork, Smooth Air, Anak Nakal, Court Vision, Z Fortune, Cowboy Cal, Gayego, Monba That doesn’t mean I love those not cited but for various reasons I’m just tossing those guys out. You have to start somewhere in narrowing the options.

[InWhyCee_Redux]

Thoughts on narrowing my options…

1. Rick Dutrow should have put down the bong BEFORE the Post Position Draw…

2. Whoever Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg picks is going to finish up the track again…

3. I really like Smooth Air’s green bridle…

4. Colonel John has a pretty flashy Web site, complete with “Big Buck Hunter” sound effects, but since he doesn’t blog I have to dock him for that…

5. If UPS can sponsor Big Brown (still my pick), can K-Y Brand sponsor the Derby? Yum! Brands is so Yuck! And the infield crowd would love it!

[system]

I’m a fool for longshots and a Turn-To fetishist so I’m going with Big Truck! :yes:

[Texarkana]

My short list, in no particular order:

1. Colonel John
2. Gayego
3. Court Vision (my initial 2 y/o pick from way back in the fall)
4. Denis of Cork

Also, at 50-1 ML odds, it would be silly to not at least put $2 on Big Truck to win. He is a very live longshot, but for some reason the oddsmakers feel he should be the longest shot on the board. I’m curious to see what the betting public will do.

Now, I hate Gayego’s post position. But I like the horse enough to cross my fingers and hope he can overcome it.

Horses I’m tossing out:
Monba-- uncharacteristically slow final work, bad post, and I didn’t like him all that much anyway.
Z Humor-- this horse doesn’t belong
Anak Nakal-- ditto
Cowboy Cal-- not liking the surface
Adriano-- ditto
Recapturetheglory-- not fast enough and that post position was the nail in the coffin
Smooth Air-- I love him, I love his story, and I’ll be ecstatic if he wins… but seeing as how he was on IV fluids a week ago, I think it’s very unlikely
Pyro-- Yes, you can throw out the BG, but he’s no longer peaking and Asmussen knows it
Bob Black Jack-- I like him a lot and think he’s a neat, versatile horse. But I think trying 1 1/4 is biting off more than he can chew

I haven’t decided what to do with the few others…

I do think Big Brown’s final blowout was breathtaking, but as the heavy favorite, I see no reason to play him.

[Beezer]

Heck, I threw up my hands on this one a long time ago! :lol: I’m not willing to put my Smarty Jones-Barbaro-Street Sense streak on the line (and, yeah, I passed on the Giacomo year, too ).

My Derby plan is to just sit back and enjoy what I bet (ha!) will be one fun race. (But I’ll still be yelling for Big Brown )

[ravenclaw]

[QUOTE=InWhyCee Redux;3183980]
If UPS can sponsor Big Brown (still my pick), can K-Y Brand sponsor the Derby? Yum! Brands is so Yuck![/QUOTE]

K-Y? You mean like K-Y jelly? Well…at least it has a horse connection because it can be used to clean sheaths. :lol: I agree with you about Yum! Brands. I cringe a little whenever I read or hear “The Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands.”

[Catsdorule-sigh]

Through this site a lot of information:
http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby08-contenders.htm

And by way of the above, this site on each horse (This one happens to be Big Brown) with information on the Reine-de-Course in each horses pedigree:
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/triple-crown/contender-detail.aspx?contenderno=454

Big Brown:
Northern Dancer 3S x 3D
Damascus 3S x 4D
Round Table 4S x 5D
Reine-de-Course Rough Shod II 5D x 6D through Thong and Lt. Stevens
Reine-de-Course Selene 7S x 7S x 7D x 7D through Hyperion (3) and Sickle

I pick on sentimentality and what little I’ve seen of the horses running, so this is obviously not the way to do it and win big…

Sentimental (But with a good shot at it):
Colonel John – Would love to see a win by a horse with Matchem sire line and keep that line going.

Most likely winner:
Big Brown – Not fond of the Northern Dancer in the pedigree but greatly intrigued by the Damascus/Round Table crosses. Mostly though, watching the way this horse runs in what little I’ve seen, he just seems so effortless with tremendous reach under himself with those hind legs. He looks to be a big striding horse. If he’s got the stamina, think he could run the race somewhat wide all the way and still have a kick left if the pace isn’t brutal.

Potential (Like they all have):
Dennis of Cork
Adriano

Sentimental upset:
Gayego- Damascus on top and only one cross in five generations of Native Dancer

Likely upset:
Recapturetheglory- There’s just something about this horse that makes me think with the right race, he could pull it off.

Obviously, not basing any of this, much, on past races. Obviously not a fan of a lot of Native Dancer or Mr. Prospector lines. One of those who would just like to see more variation in the bloodlines and the best way to do that is by having those lines produce more winners.

Most likely winner: Big Brown (In spite of his trainer, not the horse’s fault)
Most likely upset: Recapturetheglory

Most worried for the future: Big Truck
Someone please tell me that those pasterns don’t look a little long and light boned. When I first saw his legs it reminded me of Ruffian.

[Glimmerglass]

Interesting we might have a sponsorship conflict with Big Brown. As noted Kent, per the press conference, is to wear UPS-logo pants in the Derby in honor of Big Brown’s namesake. The jockey’s won a court battle a few years ago to wear sponsor logos in the race. However there is a new wrinkle of sorts:

BloodHorse 5-2-08 “NetJets to Sponsor Derby Jockeys”

NetJets, Inc. announced May 2 that it will sponsor each jockey “running for the roses” at this year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, held on Saturday, May 3, 2008.

As part of the NetJets’ sponsorship of the Kentucky Derby jockeys, a $200,000 donation will be made on behalf of the jockeys participating in the race to the NTRA Charities - Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund. The fund benefits jockeys who have suffered disabilities during the course of their riding careers. NetJets will also make an additional $100,000 contribution to the fund.

I assume that ALL jocks will be required to wear the NetJet’s logo in order for the donation to occur or at least by not wearing the logo the suggestion would be that the jockey doesn’t support the Disabled Jockey Fund. Interesting.

[InWhyCee_Redux]

[QUOTE=ravenclaw;3184093]
K-Y? You mean like K-Y jelly? Well…at least it has a horse connection because it can be used to clean sheaths. :lol: [/QUOTE]

I learn something new every day! Alas, my gelding had to get by with Orvis Soap and Mom.

Another thought: “Twenty choices means that an average horse has a one in twenty chance of winning. That’s a 5% chance,” according to James Lambert, M.S., specialist in Mathematical Pedigree Study And Handicapping Methods.

So, it doesn’t matter who I bet — I’ve got a 5% shot!