The more it rains and the muddier the track gets the less I like Colonel John and the more I am back to Big Brown.
Pyro got his best Beyer (105) in the slop; unfortunately, he got it last November at the BC.
I’m sticking with Pyro. But it’s going to be a hossrace for sure. It’s really wide open this year!
Always said to be a bad thing - although others dismiss it as a sort of old-wives tale but Big Brown will wear front wraps for the first time in a race … oh …
DRF 5-1 “Big Brown’s first trainer, Reynolds, happy and sad”
Big Brown to wear front bandages
Big Brown will wear front bandages for the first time in a race when he starts as the probable favorite in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Big Brown wore the bandages in his three-furlong workout Thursday morning that Daily Racing Form timed in 35.33 seconds. Ninety-minutes later, at a morning press conference, Dutrow revealed that the horse would wear the bandages for the first time in a race.
“The first time we ran him he burned a little bit on his right heel, just a little bit,” Dutrow said, referring to a March 5 allowance win at Gulfstream. "Ever since then I breezed him with bandages. Actually, I should have put bandages on him in his last race because he did burn a little bit again. It’s not anything for anyone to worry about, but I am going to put bandages on when he runs.
“I don’t like doing it because it’ll bring up a lot of questions, but it’s only because he burned a little bit on his right front heel.”
Run-downs are a beeyotch. Wise to prevent if you can.
Just an observation…
Edgar Prado is on a hot streak right now. He rode in 8 of 11 races at Churchill today. He was on the board in every race-- with 2 wins, 4 places, and 2 shows. Only 2 of the 8 were favorites for the race.
So that’s one plus in Adriano’s book.
Adriano and Cowboy Cal.
- Denis of Cork
- Tale of Ekati
- Big Brown
- Visionaire
- Adriano
Adriano
Don’t really feel much else.
I’m going to box Colonel John, Big Brown and Tale of Ekati.
Sentimentality picks… a Colonel John/Denis of Cork would be sweet.
The odds have shifted based upon the initially wagering … and the odds on the filly, Eight Belles, has dropped in half
PP Horse Odds
1 Cool Coal Man 35-1
2 Tale of Ekati 45-1
3 Anak Nakal 50-1
4 Court Vision 14-1
5 Eight Belles 8-1
6 Z Fortune 17-1
7 Big Truck 20-1
8 Visionaire 22-1
9 Pyro 5-1
10 Colonel John 4-1
11 Z Humor 60-1
12 Smooth Air 40-1
13 Bob Black Jack 25-1
14 Monba 25-1
15 Adriano 24-1
16 Denis of Cork 25-1
17 Cowboy Cal 40-1
18 RecapturetheGlory 45-1
19 Gayego 21-1
20 Big Brown 7-2
[QUOTE=Barnfairy;3184489]
Run-downs are a beeyotch. Wise to prevent if you can.[/QUOTE]
Why are front wraps such a big deal in the racing world, especially if they’re used to wearing them for workouts???
And what is a burn? Interfering?
Hmmm Eight Belles to 8 to 1? that’s a little optimistic and likely based on her stablemate yesterday.
Nonetheless, I fearlessly always bet the greys as a longshot backup…how I got Giacomo. 8 to 1 is not going to pay much coupled in an exacta with one of the favs even if she does get up there.
I was comfortable going with CJ but now I just don’t know…maybe Pyro? Rained on and off all night (still raining here in Cincy at 11), not going to be hard and fast regardless of how they classify it…but does that benefit the ones off the synthetics or not?
The “burn” is a result of the surface of the track abrading the skin at the back of the fetlock. Front wraps can indicate something not quite right, the horse is prone to burning itself or…they may mean nothing at all.
The racing, and betting, world does not like any changes in a big race. Bet away from anything wearing or doing something for the first time in a big race is the standard logic. Not always correct either, for example blinkers for the first time may actually help a horse (but why didn’t they try that before). But worth a thought.
OK…I got it…
I am going to use Gayego, Pyro and Colonel John in some combination. Add Eight Belles(my totally unscientific grey theory) and a longshot yet unknown (Recapturetheglory? Field of Ekati?). But likely $2 bets, no confidence, really.
Unless I change my mind.
Really there are reasons to use these and just as many reasons not to.
Here’s hoping they all stay on their feet and all the jocks stay topside.
No further rain expected, the sun is drying out the track and it will be a fast track come Derby time.
Colonel John, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati, Denis of Cork.
A “burn” is also called a rundown, and it is an abrasion at the back of the fetlock. Once the rundown wound has been opened, they can be really difficult to heal. Typically they are caused from the back of the fetlock getting irritated by track dirt; the tremendous force of galloping puts the fetlock practically right down on the ground when the leg is in the full weightbearing phase. One of my horses got them just from sliding down over the door jamb between his stall and his runout paddock. They stung him like a son-of-a-b and took forever to close up – and he wasn’t even running anymore.
The back of the fetlock can be protected with rundown patches stabilized with vetrap.
Bandages in front could also indicate that the horse has a tendon issue. Just like findeight said, any equipment change can trigger speculation amongst handicappers.
ESPN showed a clip of Larry Jones (all 200-lbs of him) exercising Eight Belles this week with a microphone on him - his comment while she was pulling like a freight train “any time Eight Belles you want to pull up” … with her still enthusiastic to go-go.
Her odds have shifted by 1 pm today to 12-to-1
[QUOTE=Texarkana;3185024]
Just an observation…
Edgar Prado is on a hot streak right now. He rode in 8 of 11 races at Churchill today. He was on the board in every race-- with 2 wins, 4 places, and 2 shows. Only 2 of the 8 were favorites for the race.
So that’s one plus in Adriano’s book.[/QUOTE]
Edgar JUST won again!
