Your 08 Derby pick?

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3190661]
he said to reporters that he didn’t get a chance to get to the window to make that bet. [/QUOTE]

Yeah, right. I’m sure like all the other trainers, it was taken care of by someone else. You’re not going to see any big name trainer standing in line at the window to bet several thou.

Dutrow looked like he was not feeling so good just before the Derby (maybe had something to do with $100,000? :wink: I thought Big Brown looked a little off after his first start, not surprisingly after which he needed time off for his feet.

I had BB in a Derby futures pool (before his second start), and a Big Brown/Eight Belles boxed exacta. I really thought she had a shot due to the distances at which she was winning and her consistency. Was even wearing my Hard Spun hat :frowning:

As someone else said, the NBC coverage afterwards showed Asmussen and Larry Jones walking past Big Brown, and you could tell they didn’t yet know, so eerie.

Anyway, how about Denis of Cork and Calvin “Bo-Rail” Are they thinking Belmont with him?
How did everyone else come out?

Andrew Beyer’s column is here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/04/AR2008050401556.html

and Sally Jenkins did an online Q&A about her previous column today. Transcript here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/05/05/DI2008050500797.html?hpid=topnews

Oh, just saw this: my local paper, the Harrisburg Patriot-News, ran Andrew Beyer’s column on the back page of its pull out sports section, with two photos side by side. Kent Desormeaux with arms upraised in triumph, and next to it Eight Belles on the ground. I’m not saying this was exploitive, it WAS the news, but the EB photo I hadn’t seen before and wonder if anyone else published that one. You can clearly see the the big pink-filled syringe in the vet’s hand. Very sobering.

Not that I want this thread tainted, but I do have to chuckle at this almost mythical suggestion of somehow no horses outside of the US start training let alone racing at 2-yrs old; I guess the legendary Epsom Derby (for 3-yr olds) is a big Group 1 race for horses who just started a couple months prior … sure.

As extracted from the Sally Jenkins on the Kentucky Derby

Virginia Beach, Va.: I have never understood why the American horse racing industry starts training horses at the age of two vs. other countries who start them at three. At two they are not even in their “teens” developmentally, and have not really finished growing and developing bone. It would seem that this practice needs to be changed - and soon!

Virginia Beach being the home to PETA, imagine that.

Change is something that takes time.

So this rally cry of ceasing tomorrow racing for 2-yr olds is just a waste of efforts. However I will support any push that eliminates any further awarding of Graded status to 2-yr old races and in exchange shifts them the 4-yr old and up races.

There are I lament too many big purse, graded races for 2-yr olds, like the Delta Jackpot in December. On this thread we have cited before support for minimizing those graded dollars won at 2-yrs old vs. graded money earned at 3 in the context of the Derby entry. That would not have impacted Eight Belles however as she won her last 4 races (all graded) without issue.

If you do strategically change things at the top of the sport it will filter down, over the time, to the larger ranks of racing.

[QUOTE=findeight;3186902]
BTW I had money (just for show) on Eight Belles and the 4th placed Field of Ekati (along with several well regarded others that disappointed). I’ll not cash the ticket on the filly.[/QUOTE]


Why not cash the ticket and donate it to an animal charity? A friend of mine is doing that… I think it would be lovely (for the lack of a better word) and appropriate if a lot of people donated to TURF or ReRun in Eight Belles’s name…

Denis of Cork likely headed to the Belmont:

“He came out of the race great,” Carroll said of the colt who finished 3 ½ lengths behind the ill-fated runner-up Eight Belles. “We will watch him the next few days, but he will probably run in the Belmont. Big Brown was very impressive.”

Well, I am glad that sometimes wanting to believe is just as good as actually believing. :yes:

I sooooo wanted to Big Brown to win but didn’t honestly believe he could … so I didn’t bet him – or anyone. Best money I never made. :winkgrin:

Very sad about Eight Belles. Nuff said.

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3189303]
If IEAH is trying to (and they are) promote their hedge fund theory then the risk to the investment would shoot up right there to go forward on the track. -If he faulters at any steps in the late summer (Haskell Invitational, Travers, JCGC, let alone the BCC where on poly he just might be a non factor) and/or the cracks return then his value goes down and they wouldn’t want that. [/QUOTE]

Staggering is the amount of money he’s reportedly insured for despite having bad feet:

CNBC 5-5-08

[Big Brown]… will head to Pimlico for the Preakness as the most insured active horse at $50 million

Yep, gotta make sure we genetically pass on those horrible feet!

Just out of curiosity, does anybody know what the insurance premiums are on 50 million?

5.5% of 50 million.

I thought someone asked somewhere about Colonel John, but now I can’t find it in the midst of the invasion. Anyway, I was wondering about him too and found this snippet:

excerpted from Big Brown scares off rivals, Jay Privman reporting for the DRF:

Colonel John “will be sent to Keeneland for a few days” before a decision is reached on his next start, [trainer Eoin] Harty said.

“He came back good,” Harty said. “It looked like he took a funny step at the quarter pole. He had a lot of trouble out of the gate and had too much to do from there.”

The sixth-place finish by Colonel John was the best of the nine horses in this Derby who had made their previous start on a synthetic surface.

-Purely out of curiosity I ask- So, are we going to carry on with Preakness dsicussion here, or on a new thread? Either way, I don’t care…just wondering if we should ask johnnysauntie to change the title?

[QUOTE=Barnfairy;3192079]
So, are we going to carry on with Preakness dsicussion here, or on a new thread? Either way, I don’t care…just wondering if we should ask johnnysauntie to change the title?[/QUOTE]

Not that its my call but I’d say keep this thread and maybe change the title to ‘2008 Triple Crown Chase’. There have been other contenders discussed on this thread who likely will appear (e.g. Tomcito) in the next two legs.

Plus this one discussion thread seems to be respected (thankfully) by those who are falling prey to spreading misinformation or posing ‘innocent’ but rebel rousing talk on racing.

Interesting viewship chart from 1975 - 2007 for the Kentucky Derby on television:

TV Viewership - Kentucky Derby

In 1975 Foolish Pleasure won while ABC Sports scored with 54% of all tv’s tuned into that race; over 26.74 million viewers. Street Sense in 2007 on NBC sports was seen by 21% of all tv’s and 13.75 milion viewers.

NBC’s 2008 Derby coverage earned a 9.5 overnight rating and 21 share, down three percent from last year’s 9.8/21, when Queen Elizabeth II attended the race. 2007 was the best in at least five years.

The rating was up seven percent from the 8.9/20 in 2006.

Overnight ratings measure the nation’s 55 largest television markets. The rating is the percentage watching a broadcast among all homes with televisions, and the share is the percentage tuned in to a broadcast among those households with televisions on at the time.

Tomcito will do a prep race in NY before the Belmont: DRF 5-5-08 - Tomcito skipping Preakness

Preparation [for the Belmont] started a gallop over Belmont’s main track on Monday morning, and was to continue with an expected workout here on Tuesday morning before a start in Saturday’s Grade 2, $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes.

After watching the race, Zanelli said he felt Tomcito could have been good enough to be third in the race behind Big Brown and Eight Belles.

Zanelli ruled out the Preakness because he said he believes "our best chance to beat Big Brown is the Belmont and we’d love to play the spoiler.’’

Zanelli said Cornelio Velasquez will replace Jorge Chavez aboard Tomcito for the Peter Pan, contested at 1 1/8 miles around one turn.

Among the entries: Casino Drive (“half-brother to 2007 Belmont winner Rags to Riches and 2006 Belmont winner Jazil”) who was shipped from Japan earlier this year specfically pointed to the Belmont.

I don’t believe any broodmare’s produced 3 winners of any stakes race, let alone any G1 race.

I am glad that this thread has stayed on target and has not been tainted also. After all these months discussing these horses and trying to figure out who will do what, I had a trifecta with Pyro, Col. John, Z Fortune and Court Vision all boxed, it was so much fun knowing so much about these horses and making an informed bet although I guess there are alot other factors involved, but fun none the less. My non horsey husband bet on Denis of Cork to win place or show because his family is from Cork! So, atleast he could cover my bet! :yes:
I have read alot of articles about Eight Belles and she was just a fantastic horse with so much heart, it is a shame that she broke down.

[QUOTE=WhiteCamry;3192746]
I don’t believe any broodmare’s produced 3 winners of any stakes race, let alone any G1 race.[/QUOTE]

Personal Ensign did: dam of graded stakes winners My Flag and Miner’s Mark and G1 winner Traditonally, so she made 3. She also produced graded-stakes placed Our Emblem.

I think you misunderstood. What was in question was whether a mare had thrown three consecutive winners of the same G1 race, or any stakes race.
There are a number of mares, like Personal Ensign, who has produced muiltipe GSW offspring.