Your 08 Derby pick?

Posted on another thread…only time I have seen an accelerating kick like that was Secretariat and Cigar-both looked like a freight train going downhill passing the field. Niether of them was fresh enough to drop the jock galloping out.

If he comes out ok, keeps his glue ons on and does not step on a safety pin? Could be the one.

It WOULD have to come on the heels of tragedy…:no:

BTW I had money (just for show) on Eight Belles and the 4th placed Field of Ekati (along with several well regarded others that disappointed). I’ll not cash the ticket on the filly.

FE, I cant stand it…lol Its Tale of Ekati…not Field…sorry <ducking head>

I cannot even begin to address half the idiotic remarks said in the name of the late Eight Belles by people who likely haven’t followed five minutes worth of the prelude to Derby Day and wouldn’t have been able to pick her out of lineup of colts, geldings and mares.

I do tip my hat to Big Brown for what he accomplished and how he made it look almost down right easy. I guess Dutrow’s $100k wager (perhaps just an urban legend) paid off almost as handsomely as his loud comments. The late Bud Delp was loud about Spectacualr Bid - but he could be because that horse won … so to some degree the same seems to apply.

Who knows maybe he is the wonder horse so many have been looking for? For the most painfully obvious reasons its a true shame that “his time” would arrive at the same as another’s would end. I’m glad that Calvin got up for 3rd albeit a very distant position. It still was some redemption.

Larry Jones is a straight shooter who thought Eight Belles rightfully had a good chance at victory as any other male this year for the Derby - and he was right. Her 2nd place finish indicated just that.

Over the last few weeks I’ve watched the videos/pictures and accounts of her exercising, working out, being taken care of by Larry Jone’s wife, how friends and family of the Porters have gushed over her, and how they debated about running her in the Oaks or Derby.

She wasn’t “thrown to the wolves” by running the Derby - no more then last year’s Belmont was contested victoriously by Rags to Riches. Over used at a young age? She like her stablemate, Proud Spell, would’ve run on the same track the day prior.

The Daily Racing Form captures the press conference held a couple of hours after the Derby when Larry Jones was finally able to speak to the media:

DRF 5-3-08 “Jones: ‘She went out a champion’”

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - At a press conference two hours after his filly Eight Belles was euthanized on the racetrack after fracturing both front ankles following her second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, a choked up Larry Jones said: “She went out in a blaze of glory, she went out a champion. We’re heartbroke. We’re going to miss her.”

Jones had won the Kentucky Oaks the previous afternoon with Proud Spell. He also trained Hard Spun, who finished second in the 2007 Derby.

Jones said he watched Eight Belles cross the finish and gallop out around the turn and was unaware that she had been injured.

“She hit the wire running, I watched her gallop out around the turn with her ears up following Big Brown, and she did not appear to be in any distress,” said Jones. "At that point we were kind of high fivin’ and thinking this was deja vu like last year. I had trouble getting through the crowd to get to the racetrack and when we finally got to the track I saw Kent (Desormeaux) coming back and you could tell from the look on his face he was a little solemn. It was just not like he’d won the Kentucky Derby. Then I heard a horse had broken down and figured it must have been one of the ones who’d run poorly, and then someone said, ‘That’s your jock riding back on the pony with Donna Brothers.’ "

And when Jones finally got to his rider, Gabriel Saez, he learned the bad news.

"He told me, ‘Mr. Larry they put her down,’ " said Jones. “And I thought, how do you put a horse down like this? We’re used to trying to save them. I caught a ride in the ambulance to where she was lying on the racetrack and when I saw her I knew there was no way of her being saved.”

Jones says he didn’t know what caused the injury, but that it didn’t have anything to do with her racing against males for the first time in her career. Nor did he blame the racetrack, which was soaked by rains on Friday and early Saturday morning but was rated fast by post time for the Derby.

“I see no reason for this,” said Jones. “It happened a quarter of a mile after the race. If she was under a little stress finishing the race, was losing ground and looked like she was in distress, I would have second-guessed myself severely and kicked myself in the pants. She went into the race the best she’s ever gone into any race in her life, she was so calm in the paddock, so confident. I know we’re probably going to get criticized and second-guessed by somebody who’ll come up with the idea she shouldn’t have been in there, but it wasn’t in the race this happened. She could have done this racing against Shetland ponies. All she had to do was pull up and come back and we’d be happy. Unfortunately that just didn’t happen.”

Jones choked up again when talking about footage that appeared on the ESPN broadcast earlier in the day showed him exercising Eight Belles here this week.

“She’s been our family, she’s been with us for a year and that was my last ride on her,” he said while choking up briefly. “Losing animals isn’t fun. It’s not supposed to happen. We’re going to miss her.”

From Dr, Larry Bramlage: “In my years in racing, I have never seen this happen at the end of the race or during the race.”

It’s unfortunate that the DrudgeReport choose to make her death the front page story and worse that the Baltimore Sun chooses on their front page to have her downed body, laying on her side, the image for everyone to see. Or the AP is releasing the story accompanied with a photo of her kneeling down in obvious distress.

I’d far prefer an image like Larry exercising her this past week or the frequently seen one of Cindy Jones giving the 17hand filly a bath.

She’ll be very much missed :frowning:

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;3187583]
I cannot even begin to address half the idiotic remarks said in the name of the late Eight Belles by people who likely haven’t followed five minutes worth of the prelude to Derby Day and wouldn’t have been able to pick her out of lineup of colts, geldings and mares.

I do tip my hat to Big Brown for what he accomplished and how he made it look almost down right easy. I guess Dutrow’s $100k wager (perhaps just an urban legend) paid off almost as handsomely as his loud comments. The late Bud Delp was loud about Spectacualr Bid - but he could be because that horse won … so to some degree the same seems to apply.

Who knows maybe he is the wonder horse so many have been looking for? For the most painfully obvious reasons its a true shame that “his time” would arrive at the same as another’s would end. I’m glad that Calvin got up for 3rd albeit a very distant position. It still was some redemption.

Larry Jones is a straight shooter who thought Eight Belles rightfully had a good chance at victory as any other male this year for the Derby - and he was right. Her 2nd place finish indicated just that.

Over the last few weeks I’ve watched the videos/pictures and accounts of her exercising, working out, being taken care of by Larry Jone’s wife, how friends and family of the Porters have gushed over her, and how they debated about running her in the Oaks or Derby.

She wasn’t “thrown to the wolves” by running the Derby - no more then last year’s Belmont was contested victoriously by Rags to Riches. Over used at a young age? She like her stablemate, Proud Spell, would’ve run on the same track the day prior.

The Daily Racing Form captures the press conference held a couple of hours after the Derby when Larry Jones was finally able to speak to the media:

DRF 5-3-08 “Jones: ‘She went out a champion’”

From Dr, Larry Bramlage: “In my years in racing, I have never seen this happen at the end of the race or during the race.”

It’s unfortunate that the DrudgeReport choose to make her death the front page story and worse that the Baltimore Sun chooses on their front page to have her downed body, laying on her side, the image for everyone to see. Or the AP is releasing the story accompanied with a photo of her kneeling down in obvious distress.

I’d far prefer an image like Larry exercising her this past week or the frequently seen one of Cindy Jones giving the 17hand filly a bath.

She’ll be very much missed :([/QUOTE]

Bravo Glimmerglass.

Well said :yes:

bump

I’m sure you would. But Derby coverage isn’t just for horsemen. It’s news. It’s when the rest of the world looks at us to see what those horse people are up to. And this is what they see. I agree it was a tragic ACCIDENT, but have to admit it most likely is directly linked to her age, size, and that the effort required to run such a race makes such a result more likely. Therefore in all the hand-wringing of “what can be done?” and “we’re doing all that can be done!” the most obvious fix is met with “NO WAY, we’ll never do THAT.” There’s the problem right there.

And Eight Belles dying is NEWS. Again, think of a sport, ANY sport, in which the competitors competing in the named, big-time, world class events have a death rate as high as horse sports. Football? Baseball? Soccer? Skiiing? I’m just saying that if ANY prominent sport had a death rate this high, people would be freaking out. Just imagine if an NFL player died in the SuperBowl or if as many NFL players died WHILE COMPETING IN A GAME as horses died in the last 5 Breeders Cups/TC races. You don’t think that would be a matter for concern? Or to stay away from the human comparison, how about other sports? Dog shows? Schutzhund? Ring sport? Field trials? I’m sure we’ve all read about the Iditarod dog deaths and what big news that has become and all the things being done to reduce that. And the Iditarod isn’t nearly as huge as the TC.

Also, it wasn’t just the Baltimore Sun. It was also CNN’s front page photo as well as MSNBC.

Now to shed light on one of the things that IS being done, and the average person doesn’t know about, is the synthetic surface issue. What do those of you in racing think about this?

ESPN has been one of the venues talking about it and how there is hope that this will significantly reduce injuries, so there’s something tangible right there that’s being worked on to solve the problem.

It’s encouraging that more and more tracks are converting to polytrack, albeit not fast enough. We know it is capable of reducing the incidence of injuries, but has anyone else heard about the longer-term risk associated with it…TB respiratory problems due to inhaling the synthetic material? I heard a trainer lamenting this recently and was wondering if it’s been discussed yet.

I’m sure it has because it was mentioned by a poster on another thread as something being considered. The point is, let the research commence! Things ARE being done and the breathing thing will have to be resolved if determined to be legit.

I’ve never cheered so hard for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers. I wasn’t rooting for Big Brown, but my hat is off to him. I still would like to see him break in the middle of a field and get dirt to be a full believer.

It seems every year there is triple crown talk. While I agree that I don’t see who is out there that could beat him, if The Bid couldn’t do it, anything can happen. Is there a Bernardini out there? What about Harlem Rocker? Maybe he can come down.

About the filly-probably the worst break down at a KD. Utterly sad. Those of us that have spent countless hours over the past 8 or 9 months preparring for this race knew she belonged.

Saw Larry Jones on Sportscenter and he was completely choked up. He is a class act and racing is lucky to have him. But, he proved she deserved to race where she did. All these people touting that it was cruel she ran against the boys and racing is cruel blah blah blah, where are you all the other race days? Those of us that follow this sport have to deal with this more than you seem to know. Does it make it ok? No, absolutely not. It’s just annoying people come out like they do on these big days. If you want to blame somebody, how about starting with the genes of this filly. Breeding is where the problem lies. This could have happened to any horse out there. Had she been in the pack and in clear distress, Larry Jones would have kicked himself in the pants (to quote him). But she wasnt. She looked amazing out there.

This was a grand filly whose form turned around within 2 or 3 weeks this winter. Stunning. Nobody is more upset about this than her connections and anybody who follows this sport should agree, she belonged. Damning the connections of her is completely unproductive.

I’m so sad. Sad at the loss of a beautiful filly so keen to run. Sad for the Jones family and for Rick Porter and for everyone closely connected to Eight Belles.

And I think the assault of ignorance is going to make my head explode.

headpalmheadpalmheadpalm*

I’m still at a loss for words due to the amount of ignorance that surfaces at times like this. :sigh:

My heart goes out to Jones, Porter, Saez, and all the connections.

It was a great race, though. I was most impressed with Denis of Cork and Borel. When he dropped back and angled in like that after the break, I thought they were done for. Great ride by Calvin!

Recapturetheglory impressed me as well. Based off his previous form and his pedigree, I had completely dismissed him. But he ran his race in the paddock and still managed to get the distance.

Ignoring soundness, I can’t see him losing the Preakness.
The only thing I can see beating him at Belmont are the two foreign horses, Tomocito (who won over 1½m as a 2yo— oh the horror!!) and Casino Drive (a half to the last two Belmont winners, Jazil and Rags to Riches). The former seems esp cut out for the distance, the latter was sent half way around the world with the Belmont as his specific target, so they must fancy their chances.

Btw, if BB does win the TC, then say goodbye to him racing after June. His connections strike me as the kind that would cash-in while they’re ahead.

If Casino Drive does manage to show up and win the Belmont, that will be remarkable. Has any broodmare ever produced 3 straight winners of the same G1 race?

As for Tomcito… I’m not convinced he has the Belmont lock, stock, and barrel. He’s a nice horse, but he did not face anything in his races in South America. He seems to have had a rude awakening with his competition here.

On paper, I also don’t see who could beat Big Brown in the Preakness. But I really like the prospect of Tres Borrachos trying.

And I think it’s a shame they’re not sending Bob Black Jack and Gayego on to Pimlico. But I completely understand them needing a break after yesterday.

Gayego was NOT happy!!! He caused all sorts of problems. He came in and I think Court Vision came out and Smooth Air and somebody else got screwed. SA also didnt have a great start. Pyro also got pinched. Was most disappointed by Col John. Didnt see much of him to be able to tell what happened.
I was on the Tomcito bandwagon, but I am not so sure about him cleaining up. I thought the connections said something about running in NY or Boston or something-that it was an experiment and oh well.

Dutrow doesn’t sound as confident today. He seems really uncomfortable with the 2 weeks and admitted the horse still hasn’t faced the diversity he will inevitably have to face. But, I completely agree that I don’t see who can beat him at Pimlico. What I do know that it is going to be hard to forget this KD. My sympathies go out to all the connections. On the coverage when Dona was talking on the pony, you could see Assm. and Jones walking and talking and you knew right away he didn’t know and that made me sick to think what he was about to find out-that not only was she down, but she was gone. So sad he had to find out how he did.

Which brings me to a question-do track vets have a right to make the decision to put a horse down on the track?

They have the right to put them down for catastrophic injuries. They need permission for the less serious ones like sesamoids and slab fractures.

[QUOTE=Drvmb1ggl3;3188743]
Btw, if BB does win the TC, then say goodbye to him racing after June. His connections strike me as the kind that would cash-in while they’re ahead.[/QUOTE]

Agreed.

If IEAH is trying to (and they are) promote their hedge fund theory then the risk to the investment would shoot up right there to go forward on the track. -If he faulters at any steps in the late summer (Haskell Invitational, Travers, JCGC, let alone the BCC where on poly he just might be a non factor) and/or the cracks return then his value goes down and they wouldn’t want that.

Nope they’d rather cash in with a mega breeding price tag and/or syndicate a majority stake in BB (plus a dozen breeding rights per year) …

Right now it looks like the Preakness could be almost a walkover for him. If they can cobble together even just five other graded-stakes winning horses to face him I’ll be shocked. My guess is you’ll see longshot, notch below runners like Icabad Crane.

Tomcito’s connections might try the Belmont, but would be very foolish to try him at Old Hilltop.

While not nominated to the TC, and thus a hefty supplement fee will be required, could be a the return of Bob Baffert’s Samba Rooster who in the Coolmore Stakes proved he was a freaking bullet. However that was on synthetics.

As an aside, I find it shocking the mix of comments on Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farm in connection to Eight Belles

Yeah, but that’s a pretty big ignore. They kept talking about the fact that he has “terrible feet” but I don’t know what that means in his case.

Also, did anyone else notice that quick 3-second shot of BB walking off, unsaddled, looking very ouchy? Commentators didn’t say anything but it looked a little odd. I almost thought there’d be something about it today.

Agreed that if his feet are sore then all bets are off.

From the Saratoga impressive victory he required almost half a year to recover.

While cited, it was a myth that Dutrow was going to pony up $100k to win on Big Brown at the wagering window. While not in his NY Post diary, he said to reporters that he didn’t get a chance to get to the window to make that bet. Oh well, $250k + in profit was lost there :wink:

In terms of Dutrow being any less boastful, I don’t see it, yet he makes some odd reference to the Preakess:

NY Post - Derby Diary by Rick Dutrow: “I told You He’d Win”

His next race is out of my hands. The Preakness is coming up in two weeks, and the timing is not good for me. It looks like he’s the best horse in his crop, but I don’t think I’m going to feel as confident because my hands are tied. But if I just stay out of his way and don’t do anything stupid, he’ll run like this again.

Years ago, I was going real bad at the time, but I was in the game, so I felt good. It was something I had to go through to get where I am. Your mind keeps going in that direction: “I want it, I want it, I want it.”

And now I want the Preakness.