2016 Kentucky Derby & Oaks . . .

[mommy_peanut]

[QUOTE=CVPeg;8647353]
Been watching replays and reading a couple of missed articles.

Nyquist looks formidable. But I also really loved Trojan Nation’s Wood Memorial. Love this picture of him working, and being by Street Cry, I think he could be very dangerous.http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/211164/maiden-trojan-nation-seeks-derby-upset

Not sure why - unless he gets a good post and can be covered up a bit so he doesn’t fade too soon, I also like Danzing Candy.

I feel so guilty liking all these West Coast horses. I need to move.

Except I sure wish Adventist could have made the cut. Really would love to see Leah Gyarmati in the TC races. Maybe he’ll make the Preakness or Belmont.[/QUOTE]

While I want them all to finish safe & sound, I’ll be hoping TN gets there first
Just something about him that caught my eye some time ago, been following him since. He seems to get better & better every time he goes out.

If he can keep himself together I think Lani may also be one to watch.

[Shammy_Davis]

As of today here are what some of the so-called experts are saying.
Expert First Second Third
John Asher Mohaymen Mor Spirit Nyquist
Jill Bryne Mor Spirit Nyquist Gun Runner
Ed DeRosa Nyquist Exaggerator Gun Runner
James Scully Mor Spirit Gun Runner Nyquist
Joe Kristufek Destin Nyquist Outwork

Everyone at Churchill. com likes Mor Spirit.

Personally, at this point, I don’t think Nyquist can handle the distance. His fast start is a plus, but if he takes the lead and sets the pace, he is in trouble imho. I like Exaggerator at this point. Post position shouldn’t bother him as he comes from off the pace, he is mature, his connections are substantial, an off-track shouldn’t be a bother, and his pedigree makes the distance. But then again, my exacta last year was Keen Ice and Frosted. I guess it is too late for me to pick a winner over American Pharoah? And as a disclaimer, I’m not firm on my selection right now. For what it is worth all the above experts have Nyquist in the money.

Mike Norris at BleacherReport likes Nyquist.

Brian Zipse at Horseracingnation likes either Mor Spirit or Nyquist. Very diplomatic of him.

Hoverboard. com has pulled their picks from the web for obvious reasons. Not to worry though for us seniors, Hover Rounds are always an option. Churchill wouldn’t dare ban them. That would be discrimination. You can drink before noon, get as tipsy as you like, mingle around with other rail birds, probably get at the head of the line at the restroom, take the elevator for a better view, and all while seated as sympathetic fans make space to let you pass and comment on the fact that your chair arms have two enormous cup holders for your mint juleps. Burp.

[scheherazadetbmare]

Nice article on last year’s Derby Winner Pharoah in the New York Times this morning.

[Palm_Beach]

Looks like the weather is moving east and we will have a fast track for Saturday. Today should be the last day that any significant rain should fall. 85 and partly sunny for Saturday.

[Shammy_Davis]

If you’ve had a premonition derby pick lately, let us know. Apparently there is something to it. There is a story that Eddie Sweat, Secretariat’s groom, had a dream in April 73 that Big Red would win the KD, Preakness, and do something extraordinary in the Belmont Stakes. It is not included in this link but they say dreams come true

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/youve-entered-twilight-zone-kentucky-derby-premonitions/

[tbchick84]

My boss said he had a dream last night that Creator won.

[Shammy_Davis]

Mor Spirit starts from post 17. No horse has ever won the derby from 17. Expect the experts are revising picks just based on superstition.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2016/05/04/kentucky-derby-2016--entries-odds-post-positions-for-saturdays-race-at-churchill-downs/83922364/?from=global&sessionKey=&autologin=

Can’t forget the fillies.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/kentucky-oaks/2016/05/03/kentucky-oaks-2016--entries-odds-post-positions-for-fridays-race-at-churchill-downs/83868312/

[Zevida]

My pick is Majesto, mostly because he’s a Tiznow son and so I want to cheer for him and I don’t love any of the favorites. Part of me wants to put a little money on him, but if I do that it means he will surely lose. :lol:

I do think he really could improve on his Florida Derby effort, which would put him right in the mix. I think he’ll like the distance, just don’t know if he’s got the class.

The day before I rewatched the Funny Cide/Empire Maker Wood Memorial. I was at that race and after it was over I turned to the guy on the rail next to me and said I thought Funny Cide would win the Derby and I felt so confident. I don’t remember why! The race was much closer than I remembered, EM only won by a neck or so, and I think Funny Cide kept coming back at him and being so tenacious won me over. For some reason reminds me a little of that, Majesto ran a solid second (though by a lot more than a neck) and may be improving to peak at the right time.

[CVPeg]

[QUOTE=Zevida;8649621]
I turned to the guy on the rail next to me and said I thought Funny Cide would win the Derby and I felt so confident. I don’t remember why! The race was much closer than I remembered, EM only won by a neck or so, and I think Funny Cide kept coming back at him and being so tenacious won me over. [/QUOTE]

i remember feeling the same way after The Wood about Funny Cide - even though he was just a NY bred, so everyone pooh-poohed him. And cashed a ticket, too.

[rascalpony]

Funny Cide <3 I loved that little gelding. I SO wanted him to win the TC! His story was just so fun - old-timer trainer who had his first horse in the Derby, school bus full of cheerful owners, from NY, gelding. As I recall there was really no stupid CC-type drama there, either. Just a bunch of people enjoying the ride of a really nice horse.

I really like Gun Runner. I’m not even sure why, really, but I like him a lot. I was also impressed by Outwork this year, but I don’t know if he’ll win. I’d definitely bet a bit on Mohaymen - I like Kiaran and I think there were a couple issues in his loss. He’s a reallllly nice horse.

I’d like to see Lani (whose nickname should apparently be an expletive!) get up there as well, if only because it would be interesting to see after all the crap he’s pulled. I wonder if his trainer is just bracing at this point, or really thinks the horse will be different on race day. I have to believe in the latter at this point, just to not wince. Also, it’s interesting to see a Japanese trainer/jockey in the mix - they’re really coming into their own as far as horse racing goes, I like the idea of seeing Japanese bred/trained horses more often.

I don’t expect Whitmore to do much, but he looks like a nice horse. He might be a really nice horse in the future, but obviously we can’t tell that yet. Talk about luck of the draw in jockeys, while Mo Tom’s jockey somehow still has that ride.

I’ve tried hard to like Nyquist, and he is a really nice horse, but…I don’t know, I can’t warm up to him.

[jennywho]

I read an article yesterday that basically said Lani has been a handful his entire life. His barn name was JAWS as a foal.

[snaffle1987]

I don’t think Nyquist has it in him for the stretch run. There are lots of late closers in this race who are known to turn on the afterburners in the home stretch. Exaggerator has almost caught him once. If Danzing Candy and Moyahmen get to the front, they will put in some crazy fractions in the beginning on a fast track. This will not bode well for Nyquist.

[ravenclaw]

[QUOTE=jennywho;8649915]
I read an article yesterday that basically said Lani has been a handful his entire life. His barn name was JAWS as a foal.[/QUOTE]

Are Tapit offspring known to be difficult? I haven’t heard of any being as sweet as American Pharoah, but I haven’t heard of them being really nasty either.

[rascalpony]

Are Tapit offspring known to be difficult? I haven’t heard of any being as sweet as American Pharoah, but I haven’t heard of them being really nasty either.

Apparently it isn’t that uncommon. They’re not nasty so much as hot, which is probably also why they frequently win. I’m not so sure how they all are (I don’t recall Frosted having any issues), but this article sounds like Lani to the core.
http://www.drf.com/news/handling-tapits-progeny-often-no-easy-task

I wonder if some of Lani’s problems come from the Sunday Silence blood. I don’t know if he was ornery, but I do remember reading about him spooking before the Belmont and kicking Charlie Whittingham straight in the head. And of course he was by Halo, who was infamous for temper, and infamous for passing the temper on. His pedigreequery info even reads “Noted for his evil disposition; he was regularly put out in his pasture with a muzzle on.”

You put the Halo temper next to the Tapit fiery-ness and you could definitely get a horse like Lani.

[Shammy_Davis]

[QUOTE=rascalpony;8650122]
Apparently it isn’t that uncommon. They’re not nasty so much as hot, which is probably also why they frequently win. I’m not so sure how they all are (I don’t recall Frosted having any issues), but this article sounds like Lani to the core.
http://www.drf.com/news/handling-tapits-progeny-often-no-easy-task

I wonder if some of Lani’s problems come from the Sunday Silence blood. I don’t know if he was ornery, but I do remember reading about him spooking before the Belmont and kicking Charlie Whittingham straight in the head. And of course he was by Halo, who was infamous for temper, and infamous for passing the temper on. His pedigreequery info even reads “Noted for his evil disposition; he was regularly put out in his pasture with a muzzle on.”

You put the Halo temper next to the Tapit fiery-ness and you could definitely get a horse like Lani.[/QUOTE]

Sounds like quite the “rascal.”

I think the issue for the derby is Lani’s unpredictably leaving the gate more than fractiousness.

[Mara]

[QUOTE=rascalpony;8650122]
Apparently it isn’t that uncommon. They’re not nasty so much as hot, which is probably also why they frequently win. I’m not so sure how they all are (I don’t recall Frosted having any issues), but this article sounds like Lani to the core.
http://www.drf.com/news/handling-tapits-progeny-often-no-easy-task

I wonder if some of Lani’s problems come from the Sunday Silence blood. I don’t know if he was ornery, but I do remember reading about him spooking before the Belmont and kicking Charlie Whittingham straight in the head. And of course he was by Halo, who was infamous for temper, and infamous for passing the temper on. His pedigreequery info even reads “Noted for his evil disposition; he was regularly put out in his pasture with a muzzle on.”

You put the Halo temper next to the Tapit fiery-ness and you could definitely get a horse like Lani.[/QUOTE]

I wonder if Lani will be allowed to skip the walking ring for the Derby? Is there a precedent?

[rascalpony]

Sounds like quite the “rascal.”

I think the issue for the derby is Lani’s unpredictably leaving the gate more than fractiousness.

Haha yes Says something about why he interests me.

I know, that really is a big issue, isn’t it? I would hate to be excused from the gate on Derby day. And I feel for Destin and Oscar Nominated, to have him between them! He’ll definitely be…interesting…to watch in the saddling/post parade/gate load.

I believe horses can be saddled away from the crowd. I don’t think Dortmund was saddled in the regular paddock last year. I’m not entirely sure though, far from an expert. Couldn’t tell you about the walking ring, but either way he’s in the post parade and the gate load (unless he really doesn’t feel like racing).

[Shammy_Davis]

[QUOTE=snaffle1987;8649980]
I don’t think Nyquist has it in him for the stretch run. There are lots of late closers in this race who are known to turn on the afterburners in the home stretch. Exaggerator has almost caught him once. If Danzing Candy and Moyahmen get to the front, they will put in some crazy fractions in the beginning on a fast track. This will not bode well for Nyquist.[/QUOTE]

I agree but no one but you and me are convinced at this point.

Here is the AP (not the horse but the press) Derby Top 10 for this year’s run for the roses. They have anointed Nyquist already.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ap-derby-top-10-wire-wire-nyquist-no-1-contender

[Shammy_Davis]

Got to go to the ladies’ website on the oaks predictions. Personally, I like Cathryn Sophia and Weep No More in a exacta box on Friday afternoon.

Ladies, you be the judge.

https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/15372/kentucky-oaks-2016-odds-post-positions.html

[Where_sMyWhite]

SD, you are not alone in the Nyquist-maybe-not boat

I like him but despite his past performance, not sold that he is a done deal. He has a reasonable post and right next to Mohamen (who I still like) but there are too many other possibilities that I like as well… Creator, Exaggerator and for some unknown to me reason, Suddenbreakingnews.

Oaks… I still love Rachael Valentina but my pick is Cathryn Sophia - maybe a box with the two???

When Songbird dropped out, to me that really opened up the entire field…