Why is dosage important? HOw many peeps really buy off on that? Seems to me if one confines expectations based on pedigree, well you can see how that is faulty, no?
Dosage tries to give you an idea based on the horses in the pedigree what the horse should have aptitude for, short, long, mile, and so on. It does not have the capacity to take into account physical aspects of the horse… such as the horse with a bad knee or ankle that prefers to go one turn (as two turns gets to stinging too much) or the horse with a narrow airway/ paralyzed flap that cant go as far as his pedigree suggests. And we all know there are no guarantees when it comes to breeding animals. Just probabilities.
Do you pay attention to Beyer speed figures? I do, it is one of the numbers I can actually understand, but I know many don’t. What gives with that?
Personally I dont give a whole lot of credence to Beyer speed figs, because they go back and adjust them if needed. They are determined by people, not computer calculations. Case in point was a few years ago… some horse was running in the Derby, hadnt run in the big usual preps, took more circumspect route, and his speed figs at the other, smaller tracks were way lower than his fellow Derby entrants even tho he was considered of a comparable class. They went back and refigured his speed figs to be more comparable. This came directly from a handicapper who worked at the time for the daily racing form. So, my point is, they arent engraved in stone. I am thinking 97 or 98 was that Derby?
Fractions are equated with various distances along the track, pole xyz, no? Which of those are important and why? Please address as though you are talking to third grader, I just dn’t get it.
A mile is divided into 8 furlongs. You have poles that mark those furlongs. The one right before the wire (dealing only in furlong poles for the moment) is the 1/8 pole. Then you count backwards around the track… the idea is that from that pole is the distance to the finish line. So then you have the 1/4 pole, the 3/8 pole, the 1/2, 5/8, 3/4, and 7/8. Roughly, the 1/4 pole is at the head of the lane, the 3/8 is on the end of the backstretch going into the turn, the half and 5/8 are on the backside (5/8 is across from finish line on a mile track), the 3/4 pole is the beginning of the backstretch, and the 7/8 is a furlong after (to the right of) the finish line.
A bulleted work is fastest at given distance, track, what?
The fastest work at that track, that distance, that day. Each day the fastest 3/8, 1/2, 5f, etc times for each track are “bulleted.” They are then ranked in order for the # of horses worked. For example, if you look here at the 5F works you will see two of our horses who worked in company, Bowler and Seattle Theme. They had the 2nd and 4th fastest works of nine horses to work 5f that day. Seattle Theme ended up about 6 lengths in front of Bowler (usual estimation is 1/5 sec = 1 length). They are both 3 yos, Bowler by Boston Harbor($25k stud fee at the time), Seattle Theme (a filly) by a son of Seattle Slew standing in TX named Seattle Pattern($1K?). My point here being that ST is a VERY nice filly who won her first start and has been very competitive allowance company, I feel she is stakes quality. Bowler is a maiden who has run twice (poorly). It was good for both of them, gave him something to concentrate on and work towards, and gave her something to tighten her up for next race against some VERY nice fillies.
If you want to get into the 1/16 poles…(we wont mention the 70 yard pole, heck some tracks even have a 40 yard pole!) here is a list of poles, in order of running a one mile race BACKWARDS. In otherwords, from the finish line CLOCKWISE around the track (the wrong way). Because the fraction always represents the distance from that pole to the finish line (which is always the same place in front of the grandstand, almost the end/right of the stretch).
Here goes (please NOTE this is a ONE mile track which represents the majority of tracks, but there ARE tracks larger and smaller than one mile!):
finsh line
1/16
1/8
3/16
1/4
5/16
3/8
7/16
1/2
9/16 (or 4 1/2)
5/8
11/16 (or 5 1/2)
6 f
13/15 (or 6 1/2, not a real common one)
7/8
15/16 (not real common either)
Ok are you bored now?
Jessi