I also tend to think a plea is likely.
The defendant shot someone. That doesn’t seem to be in question.
The only folks who witnessed the crime and can testify to a timeline where gun was fired, then MB was attacked (vs the opposite order) appear to be pretty unreliable. Not to mention that they probably can’t count on a lot of sympathy for the victim.
I don’t see great reasons for either side to be that eager to take their chances with a jury under those circumstances, if a plea to a lesser charge can be worked out.
Still, I don’t think an attempted murder conviction would necessarily be a slam-dunk if it did go to trial, unless there’s a lot of evidence for the prosecution’s case that LK hasn’t spewed all over the internet yet. After all, MB’s defense doesn’t have to prove his innocence, it only has to cast enough doubt on the case the prosecution has made that a jury might think there’s a reasonable chance that the criteria for that charge (e.g. intent) haven’t been proven, or that what happened could have been self-defense consistent with relevant legal definitions. If the defense says that two humans and a dog attacked defendant before any shots were fired, and a gun that defendant was carrying for protection from dog was accidentally fired during the melee (not saying that’s what happened, but it’s one possible self-defense story), I don’t think it would necessarily matter that two people are involved, only whether the story was generally believable and makes a strong enough argument against intent to murder.
And although the NYT seems to think that folks on this forum largely aren’t rallying around LK because we’re all MB fangirls, in reality I don’t think the range of sentiments here is all that different from what you’d find in a general population in reaction to what has been said publicly about the whole situation.
Not sure why the weapons charges make you think MB was doing something illegal with the gun, either (other than, you know, shooting LK). If he didn’t have a permit, that’s an easy thing to add to the list to make sure something sticks no matter what.